HomeMy WebLinkAboutEconomic Report July 2010_201402030926589256
SUMMARY REPORT
Wilkes Square Economic Study
Nantucket, Massachusetts
Prepared For:
The Town of Nantucket
c/o CBT Architects
110 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Prepared By:
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc.
607 Boylston Street
Boston, MA 02116
January 2010 (published in July 2010)
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET ANALYSIS................................................................................................................................................4
METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................................................................................4
MARKET AREA DEFINITION.......................................................................................................................................4
Nantucket Market Area........................................................................................................................................5
Downtown Nantucket Market Area......................................................................................................................6
MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................................7
Population and Household Trends.......................................................................................................................7
Household and Per Capita Income Trends..........................................................................................................8
Disposable Income and Costs of Living.............................................................................................................10
Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................11
MARKET AREA ECONOMIC BASE ............................................................................................................................12
Labor Market Profile.........................................................................................................................................12
Employment Trends............................................................................................................................................13
Wage Rates.........................................................................................................................................................14
Business Mix and Profile ...................................................................................................................................15
Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................16
SECTOR ANALYSES..................................................................................................................................................17
Retail Market Overview.....................................................................................................................................17
Retail Demand ................................................................................................................................................................17
Retail Supply...................................................................................................................................................................20
Key Market Observations ...............................................................................................................................................24
Residential Market Analysis...............................................................................................................................25
Residential Demand........................................................................................................................................................25
Residential Supply..........................................................................................................................................................26
Key Market Observations ...............................................................................................................................................31
Hotel Market Analysis........................................................................................................................................31
Hotel Demand.................................................................................................................................................................31
Hotel Supply...................................................................................................................................................................38
Key Market Observations ...............................................................................................................................................39
DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS.................................................................................................................................40
CONDITIONS FOR SUCCESS ......................................................................................................................................40
Macro Location..................................................................................................................................................40
Micro Location...................................................................................................................................................40
Pedestrian Access and Visibility........................................................................................................................40
Vehicular Access and Parking...........................................................................................................................41
Critical Mass and Development Scale...............................................................................................................41
Environmental Quality and Design....................................................................................................................41
Development Leverage and Synergy..................................................................................................................42
Development Timing and Phasing.....................................................................................................................42
Development Feasibility.....................................................................................................................................43
Highest and Best Use and Value Creation.........................................................................................................43
Entrepreneurial Coordination and Capital Investment .....................................................................................44
Economic Development......................................................................................................................................45
Strong Vision with a Flexible Planning Framework..........................................................................................45
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
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ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES TO GUIDE A GREAT PLAN...................................................................................................45
An Asset to Island life year-round......................................................................................................................46
An Asset to the performance of the downtown...................................................................................................46
An Asset to the fiscal health of the Town ...........................................................................................................46
An Asset to the current and future owners of the site.........................................................................................46
PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS................................................................................................................................47
LAND USE ELEMENTS..............................................................................................................................................47
A Vibrant Local Marketplace.............................................................................................................................47
A Cozy Neighborhood of Waterfront Cottages...................................................................................................48
A Small Nantucket Inn........................................................................................................................................48
An Active and Accessible Water’s Edge.............................................................................................................49
A Civic Presence on the Harbor ........................................................................................................................49
With Parking For All..........................................................................................................................................50
ILLUSTRATIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES ...................................................................................................50
Status Quo By-Right Zoning Option...................................................................................................................51
Maximum By-Right Zoning Option....................................................................................................................52
Rezoning Scenario 1 – No Garage.....................................................................................................................53
Rezoning Scenario 2 – With Garage..................................................................................................................54
Program Comparisons and Observations..........................................................................................................55
A Flexible Planning Framework........................................................................................................................56
Block A: Town Annex/Education.............................................................................................................................56
Block B: Transportation Center Mixed Use..............................................................................................................56
Block C: Parking Garage or Market/Entertainment..................................................................................................56
Block D: Market/Entertainment or Surface Parking..................................................................................................56
Block E: Mixed Use..................................................................................................................................................56
Block F: Mixed Use..................................................................................................................................................56
Block G: Civic Space................................................................................................................................................56
IMPLEMENTATION AND NEXT STEPS............................................................................................................57
AN APPROACH TO ENTITLEMENTS THAT BUILDS CONSTITUENT SUPPORT...............................................................57
A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO DRIVE IMPLEMENTATION .............................................................................57
A MIXED FINANCE PLAN THAT LEVERAGES CONSTITUENT FUNDING INTERESTS ...................................................58
APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................................................59
CENSUS DATA 1990 AND 2000................................................................................................................................59
STDB RETAIL GOODS AND SERVICES DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................59
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
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MARKET ANALYSIS
The intent of this analysis is to provide an understanding of Nantucket market conditions in order
to inform our evaluation of the future market opportunities and programming for the Wilkes
Square Study Area.
Methodology
Real estate market analysis studies the factors which contribute to the demand for and supply of
a particular type of property. Growth in the form of additional population, households and
employment yields growth in economic production (income and sales) which in turn generates
increased demand for property; while reduced activity, arising from declining population or
household numbers or higher rates of unemployment results in decreased demand.
Real estate producers and users generally respond to increased economic activity by constructing
new facilities to house growing user needs. The reconciliation of supply and demand factors
within a market is then realized in fluctuating development activity levels, rents, sale prices,
absorption, and vacancy rates.
Market Area Definition
The Wilkes Square site is situated on Nantucket Harbor and competes within the immediate
downtown and larger Nantucket marketplace. Visitor demand is of course generated from a
much larger regional and national market. The analysis which follows focuses on examination
of Nantucket’s underlying demography and economic base as well as the factors influencing the
residential, retail (including restaurant) and hospitality market sectors. Attention has also been
given to exploration of other commercial (office and entertainment) and institutional market
potentials at the site. Map of the local market areas are provided on the following pages.
The resulting market profiles provide a clear picture of the competitive environment within
which the current uses of the Study Area now compete and set the stage for suggesting how
future uses of the site might evolve.
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Nantucket Market Area
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
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Downtown Nantucket Market Area
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Market Area Demography
Demographic patterns and trends lay the foundation for the study of market conditions and are
especially important to the examination of retail and residential demand, as these uses depend
directly on resident (and visitor) expenditures for their success. Data is presented for Nantucket
County for 2000 (US Census), 2009 (estimate) and 2014 (projected) as tabulated by STDB, Inc.
a national vendor of demographic and economic data.
Population and Household Trends
As shown below, the Nantucket year-round market is small with a 2009 population of 10,763
and 4,164 households, an average of 2.4 persons per household. Over the next five years, annual
growth of 1.17% per year is expected to produce 250 new year-round resident households (50
new households per year) and a population increase island-wide of 650 persons by 2014.
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS AND FAMILIES
Population and Household Formations Population Households Families
2000 Total Population 9,520 3,699 2,106
2009 Total Population 10,763 4,164 2,357
2014 Total Population 11,410 4,412 2,489
2009 - 2014 Annual Rate 1.17% 1.16% 1.10%
The age of island residents has been and continues to increase from a median in 2000 of 36.7
years to an estimated median in 2009 of 38.8 years with further aging of the population expected
over the next five years when the median is anticipated to reach 39.6 years. Decreased
representation is anticipated in virtually every age bracket except the 25 to 34 (singles/young
families), 55 to 64 (early retiree) and 65 to 85+ (seniors) cohorts.
POPULATION BY AGE DISTRIBUTION
Population by Age 2000 2009 2014
Total 9,520 10,763 11,410
Age 0 - 4 5.5% 5.4% 5.2%
Age 5 - 9 5.4% 5.4% 5.3%
Age 10 - 14 5.4% 5.3% 5.2%
Age 15 - 19 4.4% 4.6% 4.5%
Age 20 - 24 5.9% 6.1% 6.0%
Age 25 - 34 19.6% 15.9% 16.5%
Age 35 - 44 20.9% 18.5% 16.3%
Age 45 - 54 14.1% 16.8% 16.0%
Age 55 - 64 8.3% 11.5% 12.7%
Age 65 - 74 5.7% 5.8% 7.3%
Age 75 - 84 3.6% 3.3% 3.4%
Age 85+ 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%
Age 18+ 80.8% 80.9% 81.4%
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Household and Per Capita Income Trends
The 2009 Nantucket median household income stands at $79,431 with a 2009 per capita of
$40,649. This reflects an increase over the 2000 census (collected in 1999) of 4.9% per year and
2.98% per year, respectively, a pace that exceeded national inflation rates for the period. Over
the next 5 years increases for household and per capita income are expected to be very modest,
with growth forecast at less than 1% per year.
HOUSEHOLD AND PER CAPITA INCOME
Income Median HH Annual
% Δ
Per Capita Annual
% Δ
2000 $55,586 $31,314
2009 $79,431 4.29%$40,649 2.98%
2014 $80,272 0.21%$42,552 0.94%
The Nantucket average household income is over $100,000 today owing to the dramatic growth
in the number of households earning over $75,000 during the prior decade which produced a
3.42% annual increase overall. Average household income in 2014 is expected to be only
slightly higher at $107,028.
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
Households by Income 2000 2009 2014
Household Income Base 3,701 4,164 4,412
< $15,000 8.5% 5.5% 5.1%
$15,000 - $24,999 7.6% 4.6% 4.0%
$25,000 - $34,999 12.0% 5.4% 4.7%
$35,000 - $49,999 16.7% 12.0% 11.7%
$50,000 - $74,999 19.9% 18.9% 20.0%
$75,000 - $99,999 12.7% 15.8% 16.5%
$100,000 - $149,999 11.9% 21.1% 19.7%
$150,000 - $199,999 5.9% 8.7% 9.5%
$200,000 + 4.8% 8.0% 8.8%
Average Household Income $76,214 $102,243 $107,028
Annual % Δ 3.42% 0.47%
As shown in the tables on the following page, the median household income is greatest for
household headed by persons in the 45 to 54 year old age bracket and least for householders over
the age of 75. Although as information regarding household net worth indicates, these older
households are not necessarily less affluent. The average net worth island-wide is $741,702; the
median is $204,733, illustrating the presence of high-highs and low-lows.
Most concerning for future economic growth is the relatively flat growth curve expected for year
round resident income over the next five years, with median household incomes actually forecast
to decline in the critical 45 to 54 year old bracket.
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HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
2009 Households by Income Age < 25 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75+
and Age of Householder
<$15,000 5 23 7 29 45 28 92
$15,000 - $24,999 6 14 25 13 47 60 25
$25,000 - $34,999 8 48 44 31 50 34 11
$35,000 - $49,999 29 83 137 107 86 35 22
$50,000 - $74,999 30 100 238 172 139 63 46
$75,000 - $99,999 25 106 184 169 71 48 54
$100,000 - $149,999 20 110 215 308 156 29 39
$150,000 - $199,999 11 125 43 78 58 28 20
$200,000 - $249,999 11 11 32 34 30 38 6
$250,000 - $499,999 2 6 31 30 42 25 2
$500,000 + 0 0 5 7 14 9 0
# Households 147 626 961 978 738 397 317
Median Household Income $69,863 $83,726 $77,928 $94,000 $75,551 $64,382 $53,397
Average Household Income $90,470 $97,611 $99,317 $109,729 $112,127 $114,320 $64,492
2014 Households by Income Age < 25 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75+
and Age of Householder
<$15,000 7 28 5 23 36 30 96
$15,000 - $24,999 6 13 16 11 40 64 25
$25,000 - $34,999 8 42 31 26 48 38 15
$35,000 - $49,999 29 92 121 105 98 48 25
$50,000 - $74,999 24 125 206 180 182 100 67
$75,000 - $99,999 26 113 192 188 79 63 66
$100,000 - $149,999 17 107 193 281 196 38 35
$150,000 - $199,999 10 147 45 89 70 41 18
$200,000 - $249,999 8 11 25 34 32 52 7
$250,000 - $499,999 2 7 40 32 53 40 1
$500,000 + 0 0 6 8 18 12 0
Household Income Base 137 685 880 977 852 526 355
Median Household Income $67,515 $82,627 $81,026 $92,512 $80,815 $69,273 $54,440
Average Household Income $86,232 $98,563 $106,490 $112,297 $119,849 $123,909 $62,433
HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH BY AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
2009 Net Worth by Age <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
of Householder
< $15,000 66 148 83 87 54 25 54
$15,000 - $34,999 26 68 88 34 26 16 15
$35,000 - $49,999 9 45 60 38 23 6 8
$50,000 - $99,999 21 106 168 85 61 28 31
$100,000 - $149,999 6 31 101 100 39 31 17
$150,000 - $249,999 6 62 106 127 76 36 26
$250,000 - $499,999 9 152 201 174 97 60 38
$500,000 + 4 14 154 333 362 195 128
Total # Households 147 626 961 978 738 397 317
Median Net Worth $18,555 $68,207 $137,805 $265,354 $472,808 $477,538 $282,799
Average Net Worth $71,430 $166,967 $358,200 $745,942 $1,146,536 $1,218,502 $776,137
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
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The combination of population and per capita income produced over $437.5M in aggregate
income for Nantucket residents in 2009. Anticipated increases over the next five years, while
relatively modest for each variable, taken together are expected to yield an additional $48.0M per
year in resident income potential by 2014.
AGGREGATE INCOME
Aggregate Income Annual % Δ
2000 $298,109,280
2009 $437,505,187 4.68%
2014 $485,518,320 2.19%
Disposable Income and Costs of Living
Disposable income (after-tax household income) which is the vital underpinning for year-round
retail and residential purchasing power stood at $78,525 per household on average in 2009 with a
median per household $58,016. Over the next 5 years, the increases are forecast at less than 1%
per year.
HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME BY AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
2009 Disposable Income < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
by Age of Householder
< $15,000 6 24 14 30 64 56 99
$15,000 - $24,999 8 19 53 25 64 66 22
$25,000 - $34,999 26 100 91 103 76 22 21
$35,000 - $49,999 26 94 197 141 122 59 37
$50,000 - $74,999 36 145 299 253 113 68 66
$75,000 - $99,999 14 78 151 184 109 20 30
$100,000 - $149,999 17 146 94 176 104 33 35
$150,000 - $199,999 4 10 36 29 41 27 3
$200,000 + 10 10 26 37 45 46 4
# of Households 147 626 961 978 738 397 317
Median Disposable Income $53,466 $60,400 $57,419 $66,522 $57,480 $48,483 $40,612
Average Disposable Income $80,869 $74,982 $73,954 $84,494 $86,239 $96,986 $51,977
Examination of Nantucket household budget allocations highlights the extent of the premium
cost associated with island living with the overall household budget for Nantucket at 142% of the
national norm. As shown in the table on the following page, Nantucket households spend more
relative to the national standards in virtually every category, with dramatic comparisons in the
travel (164%) and shelter categories (154%).
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HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ALLOCATIONS 2009
2009 Household Budget Expenditures Spending Percent
Potential Household
Index Budget
Total Expenditures 142 100.0%
Food 136 11.0%
Food at Home 135 6.3%
Food Away from Home 137 4.7%
Alcoholic Beverages 143 0.8%
Housing 148 30.8%
Shelter 154 24.9%
Utilities, Fuel and Public Services 126 5.9%
Household Operations 142 2.2%
Housekeeping Supplies 135 1.0%
Household Furnishings and Equipment 139 3.1%
Apparel and Services 99 2.6%
Transportation 141 15.1%
Travel 164 3.1%
Health Care 133 5.2%
Entertainment and Recreation 148 5.0%
Personal Care Products & Services 146 1.1%
Education 141 1.8%
Smoking Products 112 0.5%
Miscellaneous (1)154 2.1%
Support Payments/Cash Contributions/Gifts in Kind 145 3.6%
Life/Other Insurance 137 0.7%
Pensions and Social Security 147 10.2%
Data Note: The Spending Potential Index (SPI) is household-based, and
represents the amount spent for a product or service relative to a national
average of 100. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.
(1) Miscellaneous includes lotteries, pari-mutuel losses, legal fees, funeral
expenses, safe deposit box rentals, checking account/banking service charges,
cemetery lots/vaults/maintenance fees, accounting fees, miscellaneous personal
services/advertising/fines, finance charges excluding mortgage & vehicle,
occupational expenses, expenses for other properties, credit card membership
fees, and shopping club membership fees.
Conclusions
Analysis of general demographic trends identifies a number of basic issues which are likely to
impact property within the Wilkes Square Study Area in the near to mid-term term. Most
fundamental - Nantucket’s resident population, household numbers and income levels are
expected to increase only slightly over the next five years and the cost of island living is high.
This underscores the need for careful targeting to meet the affordability limits of the local market
and the importance of external demand (seasonal visitor demand) to the prospects for future
growth and economic development.
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Market Area Economic Base
Local employment patterns and trends provide a basis for understanding the opportunities and
constraints to economic development.
Labor Market Profile
The Nantucket employed population over age 16 totaled 7,778 in 2009. Fully 46% were
employed in the service industries (including hospitality) followed by construction (21.2%) and
retail trade (11.2%). White collar employment comprised 53.8% of the total.
EMPLOYMENT AND OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS
2009 Employed Population 16+ by Industry
Total 7,778
Agriculture/Mining 1.1%
Construction 21.2%
Manufacturing 2.2%
Wholesale Trade 1.0%
Retail Trade 11.2%
Transportation/Utilities 5.5%
Information 1.5%
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 6.4%
Services 46.1%
Public Administration 3.8%
2009 Employed Population 16+ by Occupation
Total 7,778
White Collar 53.8%
Management/Business/Financial 13.6%
Professional 18.4%
Sales 11.6%
Administrative Support 10.3%
Services 19.1%
Blue Collar 27.1%
Farming/Forestry/Fishing 0.6%
Construction/Extraction 19.3%
Installation/Maintenance/Repair 2.2%
Production 1.8%
Transportation/Material Moving 3.2%
The population and workforce is well-educated – over 93% have a high school diploma and over
15% have some college over 50% have college degrees.
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EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
2008 Population 25+ by Educational Attainment Number Percent
Total 7,876 100.0%
Less than 9th Grade 116 1.5%
9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma 378 4.8%
High School Graduate 2,189 27.8%
Some College, No Degree 1,200 15.2%
Associate Degree 666 8.5%
Bachelor's Degree 2,310 29.3%
Graduate/Professional Degree 1,017 12.9%
Employment Trends
As illustrated in the following table, Nantucket employment is highly seasonal with large
influxes of workers arriving to serve the visitor demand during the summer months (June to
September). Unemployment rates fluctuate accordingly with rates for 2009 through November
ranging from a low of 3.7% in July and August (as compared with the State-wide rates for these
months at 8.9%) to 11.6% and 12.1% in January and February (as compared with the State-wide
rates for these months at 8.1% and 8.3%).
LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2000-2009
Year Month
Labor
Force Employed Unemployed
Local
Rate
Cape &
Islands
MA
Rate
2009 January 6,180 5,465 715 11.6 11.4 8.1
2009 February 6,144 5,400 744 12.1 11.5 8.3
2009 March 6,188 5,513 675 10.9 10.8 8.2
2009 April 6,707 6,215 492 7.3 8.6 7.8
2009 May 7,727 7,318 409 5.3 7.5 8.0
2009 June 9,820 9,407 413 4.2 7.0 8.7
2009 July 11,379 10,958 421 3.7 6.4 8.9
2009 August 11,270 10,849 421 3.7 6.5 8.9
2009 September 9,371 8,905 466 5.0 7.6 9.3
2009 October 8,048 7,584 464 5.8 7.7 8.4
2009 November 7,068 6,467 601 8.5 9.4 8.3
2008 Annual 8,350 8,086 264 3.2 5.5 5.3
2007 Annual 8,505 8,307 198 2.3 4.5 4.5
2006 Annual 8,387 8,192 195 2.3 4.7 4.8
2005 Annual 8,121 7,923 198 2.4 4.7 4.8
2004 Annual 7,840 7,643 197 2.5 4.8 5.2
2003 Annual 7,691 7,496 195 2.5 5.0 5.8
2002 Annual 7,469 7,324 145 1.9 4.5 5.3
2001 Annual 7,118 7,002 116 1.6 3.7 3.7
2000 Annual 7,289 7,181 108 1.5 3.3 2.7
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As for most of the country and the region, 2009 has been a difficult year for the Nantucket
economy as illustrated by a month-to-month comparison with 2008 and 2007.
MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2007-2008
Year Month
Labor
Force Employed Unemployed
Local
Rate
Cape &
Islands
MA
Rate
2009 January 6,180 5,465 715 11.6 11.4 8.1
2009 February 6,144 5,400 744 12.1 11.5 8.3
2009 March 6,188 5,513 675 10.9 10.8 8.2
2009 April 6,707 6,215 492 7.3 8.6 7.8
2009 May 7,727 7,318 409 5.3 7.5 8.0
2009 June 9,820 9,407 413 4.2 7.0 8.7
2009 July 11,379 10,958 421 3.7 6.4 8.9
2009 August 11,270 10,849 421 3.7 6.5 8.9
2009 September 9,371 8,905 466 5.0 7.6 9.3
2009 October 8,048 7,584 464 5.8 7.7 8.4
2009 November 7,068 6,467 601 8.5 9.4 8.3
2008 January 6,135 5,792 343 5.6 7.1 5.2
2008 February 6,140 5,802 338 5.5 6.8 4.9
2008 March 6,303 6,028 275 4.4 6.6 4.9
2008 April 7,077 6,890 187 2.6 5.0 4.3
2008 May 8,249 8,057 192 2.3 4.5 4.8
2008 June 10,656 10,452 204 1.9 4.3 5.2
2008 July 11,975 11,793 182 1.5 3.8 5.4
2008 August 11,728 11,538 190 1.6 3.8 5.3
2008 September 9,651 9,426 225 2.3 4.7 5.6
2008 October 8,245 8,005 240 2.9 5.1 5.4
2008 November 7,146 6,793 353 4.9 6.8 5.8
2008 December 6,893 6,453 440 6.4 8.4 6.5
2008 Annual 8,350 8,086 264 3.2 5.5 5.3
2007 January 6,127 5,798 329 5.4 7.2 5.4
2007 February 6,154 5,833 321 5.2 6.7 5.1
2007 March 6,333 6,081 252 4.0 6.1 4.7
2007 April 7,224 7,040 184 2.5 4.6 4.2
2007 May 8,392 8,217 175 2.1 4.1 4.3
2007 June 10,767 10,593 174 1.6 3.7 4.6
2007 July 12,045 11,898 147 1.2 3.3 4.6
2007 August 11,850 11,723 127 1.1 3.0 4.2
2007 September 10,031 9,872 159 1.6 3.6 4.4
2007 October 8,683 8,545 138 1.6 3.4 3.9
2007 November 7,449 7,269 180 2.4 4.3 3.9
2007 December 7,003 6,814 189 2.7 5.3 4.3
2007 Annual 8,505 8,307 198 2.3 4.5 4.5
Most economists are forecasting stabilization during 2010 with moderate growth bringing more
normal market conditions in the 2013 to 2015 period.
Wage Rates
As indicated by data for the Cape and Islands and showing the following table, wage rates are
modest for the most well represented occupations (those with >500 employees), many of which
are also heavily represented on Nantucket. The median wage for these occupations was under
$35,000 in 2008. The median annual wage for all represented occupations on the Cape and
Islands was under $45,000.
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CAPE AND ISLANDS WAGES BY OCCUPATION - 2008
SOC Code Occupation Title Employment Median Mean Entry Experienced
41-2031 Retail Salespersons 6,980 $20,902 $25,088 $18,321 $28,472
35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 3,780 $28,473 $28,575 $23,006 $31,360
41-2011 Cashiers 3,050 $20,302 $21,849 $18,321 $23,613
37-3011 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 2,800 $31,436 $33,400 $26,285 $36,958
29-1111 Registered Nurses 2,230 $71,078 $72,381 $53,116 $82,014
43-9061 Office Clerks, General 2,190 $29,117 $30,534 $20,940 $35,330
35-3021 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including F 2,110 $19,701 $21,221 $18,380 $22,641
43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 1,760 $35,962 $36,875 $26,396 $42,115
35-2014 Cooks, Restaurant 1,670 $28,770 $28,846 $22,526 $32,006
47-2031 Carpenters 1,610 $51,809 $53,750 $39,533 $60,859
25-9041 Teacher Assistants 1,400 $25,985 $26,363 $18,318 $30,386
31-1011 Home Health Aides 1,360 $26,389 $26,275 $21,593 $28,617
35-2021 Food Preparation Workers 1,360 $22,364 $23,501 $18,375 $26,064
43-6011 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 1,340 $39,813 $41,586 $30,696 $47,031
31-1012 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 1,340 $29,700 $30,292 $24,285 $33,295
25-2021 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 1,310 $59,075 $57,295 $42,059 $64,914
37-2012 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,280 $23,042 $23,273 $19,496 $25,161
11-1021 General and Operations Managers 1,200 $78,594 $99,353 $52,315 $122,872
41-1011 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 1,160 $39,136 $42,842 $30,938 $48,793
37-2011 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Clean 1,100 $28,940 $30,283 $21,675 $34,588
25-2031 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational E 1,080 $59,203 $58,067 $41,855 $66,173
43-5081 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 1,040 $22,938 $25,808 $18,591 $29,416
43-1011 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative S 1,000 $48,195 $50,118 $35,471 $57,441
43-4051 Customer Service Representatives 1,000 $34,648 $35,409 $25,367 $40,431
53-3032 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 900 $38,463 $40,280 $33,048 $43,896
35-1012 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serv 900 $36,137 $36,803 $25,559 $42,425
35-3022 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee S 870 $18,848 $19,426 $17,730 $20,274
35-3011 Bartenders 850 $28,248 $29,238 $20,054 $33,830
33-2011 Fire Fighters 840 $44,146 $43,664 $27,159 $51,916
43-6014 Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 830 $35,170 $35,204 $26,204 $39,704
35-9021 Dishwashers 830 $21,206 $21,489 $18,323 $23,071
43-6013 Medical Secretaries 740 $37,882 $38,722 $29,739 $43,214
49-9042 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 710 $36,879 $38,537 $27,637 $43,986
33-3051 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 700 $51,021 $53,177 $42,359 $58,586
39-9021 Personal and Home Care Aides 680 $23,626 $24,617 $19,644 $27,104
53-3033 Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 670 $34,396 $35,573 $25,803 $40,458
43-4171 Receptionists and Information Clerks 670 $28,598 $28,618 $20,632 $32,610
25-2022 Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational Educa 650 $57,929 $55,611 $40,385 $63,223
41-4012 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except 630 $64,960 $78,125 $37,356 $98,509
43-3071 Tellers 620 $25,354 $26,155 $21,251 $28,607
13-1199 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 610 $47,494 $54,851 $31,550 $66,501
49-3023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 600 $43,250 $44,414 $32,267 $50,488
47-2061 Construction Laborers 590 $32,724 $36,013 $29,174 $39,433
47-2152 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 570 $57,412 $55,565 $41,386 $62,655
13-2011 Accountants and Auditors 560 $60,812 $65,811 $46,418 $75,508
39-5012 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 550 $29,272 $31,635 $22,530 $36,187
47-2111 Electricians 510 $58,394 $61,526 $47,049 $68,764
43-4081 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks 500 $25,973 $26,775 $22,125 $29,099
Business Mix and Profile
In 2009 there were 1,302 businesses on Nantucket, employing 8,183 people. Of these, over 60%
were located in the downtown, representing nearly 70% of the Island’s employees. Nantucket
businesses tend to be small, with an average at just over 6 employees per establishment. Over
32% of Island businesses represent service industries (37.7% of employment), 30% (31.8% of
employment are retail establishments and 10% (4.2% of employment) are construction business.
In the larger categories eating and drinking establishments (retail) and lodging (services)
dominate, representing 15% and 11% of Nantucket’s overall employment, respectively.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 16
NANTUCKET BUSINESS PROFILE – 2009
Business Profile
Total Businesses:
Total Employees:
Total Residential Population:
Employee/Residential Population Ratio
BUSINESSES EMPLOYEES
#%#%#%#%% Total % Total
Agriculture & Mining 43 3.3% 340 4.2% 13 1.7% 21 0.4%30.2%6.2%
Construction 141 10.8% 340 4.2% 61 7.8% 93 1.6%43.3% 27.4%
Manufacturing 23 1.8% 179 2.2% 9 1.1% 137 2.4% 39.1% 76.5%
Transportation 56 4.3% 470 5.7% 20 2.5% 288 5.1% 35.7% 61.3%
Communication 7 0.5% 305 3.7% 4 0.5% 305 5.4%57.1% 100.0%
Utility 7 0.5% 80 1.0% 2 0.3% 0 0.0% 28.6% 0.0%
Wholesale Trade 34 2.6% 102 1.2% 13 1.7% 25 0.4%38.2% 24.5%
Retail Trade Summary 390 30.0% 2,603 31.8% 293 37.2% 2,073 36.7% 75.1% 79.6%
Home Improvement 14 1.1% 72 0.9% 5 0.6% 13 0.2%35.7% 18.1%
General Merchandise Stores 2 0.2% 5 0.1% 1 0.1% 5 0.1% 50.0% 100.0%
Food Stores 33 2.5% 344 4.2% 22 2.8% 303 5.4% 66.7% 88.1%
Auto Dealers, Gas Stations 15 1.2% 91 1.1% 7 0.9% 27 0.5% 46.7% 29.7%
Apparel & Accessory Stores 51 3.9% 217 2.7% 48 6.1% 211 3.7% 94.1% 97.2%
Furniture & Home Furnishings 23 1.8% 183 2.2% 13 1.7% 154 2.7%56.5% 84.2%
Eating & Drinking Places 87 6.7% 1,206 14.7% 63 8.0% 942 16.7% 72.4% 78.1%
Miscellaneous Retail 165 12.7% 485 5.9% 134 17.0% 418 7.4% 81.2% 86.2%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 74 5.7% 370 4.5% 46 5.8% 315 5.6% 62.2% 85.1%
Banks, Savings & Lending 11 0.8% 110 1.3% 7 0.9% 108 1.9% 63.6% 98.2%
Securities Brokers 6 0.5% 1 0.0% 3 0.4% 1 0.0%50.0% 100.0%
Insurance Carriers & Agents 4 0.3% 21 0.3% 1 0.1% 10 0.2% 25.0% 47.6%
Real Estate, Holdings, Investment 53 4.1% 238 2.9% 35 4.4% 196 3.5%66.0% 82.4%
Services Summary 427 32.8% 3,088 37.7% 265 33.7% 2,161 38.3% 62.1% 70.0%
Hotels & Lodging 56 4.3% 864 10.6% 48 6.1% 742 13.1%85.7% 85.9%
Automotive Services 19 1.5% 84 1.0% 7 0.9% 52 0.9% 36.8% 61.9%
Motion Pictures & Amusements 40 3.1% 380 4.6% 27 3.4% 116 2.1% 67.5% 30.5%
Health Services 31 2.4% 351 4.3% 16 2.0% 205 3.6%51.6% 58.4%
Legal Services 10 0.8% 33 0.4% 6 0.8% 19 0.3% 60.0% 57.6%
Education Institutions & Libraries 23 1.8% 473 5.8% 19 2.4% 436 7.7%82.6% 92.2%
Other Services 248 19.0% 903 11.0% 142 18.0% 591 10.5% 57.3% 65.4%
Government 48 3.7% 254 3.1% 37 4.7% 223 4.0% 77.1% 87.8%
Other 52 4.0% 52 0.6% 24 3.0% 2 0.0%46.2% 3.8%
Totals 1,302 100.0% 8,183 100.0% 787 100.0% 5,643 100.0% 60.4% 69.0%
% of Island Wide
38.4%10,763
69.0%
Nantucket Downtown
7871,302
8,183
Nantucket County
180.3%
4,134
BUSINESSES EMPLOYEES
0.76
60.4%
EMPLOYEES
5,643
BUSINESSES
1.37
Conclusions
Like the national and regional economies, Nantucket has also been hard hit by the current
recession. The local market is physically small and geographically isolated and is heavily reliant
on discretionary visitor spending from non-resident consumers. Retail, hospitality and
construction (many tied to the second home market) establishments dominate the employment
base making the economy uniquely vulnerable to external economic shock. With limited
residential growth anticipated in the near term, the pattern and pace of Nantucket’s economic
recovery is very much tied to national and regional, rather than local demand factors.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 17
Sector Analyses
Supply and demand factors for each major market type are examined next and serve as the basis
for understanding the economic forces influencing uses of the Wilkes Square site today and in
the future.
Retail Market Overview
Retail Demand
Demand for retail space is derived from demand for retail merchandise within an identified trade
area. Demand for retail merchandise is in turn a function of the number of consumers within the
defined trade area and their current income levels and expenditure patterns. Therefore,
population, household, per capita income, and household income data is useful in understanding
aggregate purchasing power within a trade area, while expenditure and sale data provides
information regarding the allocation of aggregate purchasing power to various retail merchandise
categories.
Analysis of the demography of the marketplace has already identified significant though finite,
aggregate income and spending power within the local market area. As residential growth is
expected to be modest in the near to mid-term, local resident demand for goods and services is
expected to be relatively stable in the near term.
RESIDENT DEMAND ATTRIBUTES
Nantucket County
Top Tapestry Segments: Demographic Summary 2009 2014
Urban Chic 68.6% Population 10,763 11,410
Up and Coming Families 12.7% Households 4,164 4,412
Silver and Gold 5.5% Families 2,357 2,489
Rural Resort Dwellers 5.0% Median Age 38.8 39.6
Boomburbs 4.8% Median Household Income $79,431 $80,272
Average Disposable Income $78,525 $85,200
The tables that follow illustrate the expenditure potentials of the local resident population by
retail category. Expenditures are shown by broad budget categories that are not mutually
exclusive. Also note that consumer spending does not equal business revenue or sales.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 18
AGGREGATE ANNUAL SPENDING POWER
Spending Average
By Merchandise Category Potential Amount
Index Spent Total
Apparel and Services 99 $2,484.15 $10,343,990
Men's 97 $465.04 $1,936,436
Women's 89 $768.36 $3,199,466
Children's 99 $405.58 $1,688,855
Footwear 67 $288.05 $1,199,451
Watches & Jewelry 150 $321.77 $1,339,866
Apparel Products and Services (1)232 $235.33 $979,917
Computer
Computers and Hardware for Home Use 150 $299.27 $1,246,179
Software and Accessories for Home Use 162 $46.10 $191,981
Entertainment & Recreation 148 $4,792.66 $19,956,646
Fees and Admissions 161 $1,003.24 $4,177,489
Membership Fees for Clubs (2)160 $272.63 $1,135,247
Fees for Participant Sports, excl. Trips 163 $180.20 $750,333
Admission to Movie/Theatre/Opera/Ballet 155 $234.47 $976,333
Admission to Sporting Events, excl. Trips 170 $99.29 $413,451
Fees for Recreational Lessons 165 $215.59 $897,737
Dating Services 133 $1.05 $4,388
TV/Video/Sound Equipment 135 $1,644.09 $6,846,001
Community Antenna or Cable TV 127 $919.44 $3,828,567
Televisions 157 $254.28 $1,058,820
VCRs, Video Cameras, and DVD Players 140 $35.40 $147,417
Video Cassettes and DVDs 140 $83.29 $346,831
Video Game Hardware and Software 135 $59.10 $246,108
Satellite Dishes 149 $1.70 $7,085
Rental of Video Cassettes and DVDs 145 $63.72 $265,316
Streaming/Downloaded Video 143 $1.53 $6,364
Sound Equipment (3)148 $215.74 $898,335
Rental and Repair of TV/Radio/Sound Equipme 146 $9.88 $41,156
Pets 169 $741.37 $3,087,063
Toys and Games (4)133 $173.43 $722,179
Recreational Vehicles and Fees (5)161 $571.83 $2,381,105
Sports/Recreation/Exercise Equipment (6)119 $236.42 $984,470
Photo Equipment and Supplies (7)154 $180.25 $750,558
Reading (8)149 $242.02 $1,007,781
Food 136 $10,689.28 $44,510,179
Food at Home 135 $6,143.35 $25,580,892
Bakery and Cereal Products 133 $812.40 $3,382,853
Meat, Poultry, Fish, and Eggs 131 $1,406.64 $5,857,260
Dairy Products 134 $686.62 $2,859,089
Fruit and Vegetables 140 $1,100.78 $4,583,656
Snacks and Other Food at Home (9)135 $2,136.90 $8,898,032
Food Away from Home 137 $4,545.94 $18,929,287
Alcoholic Beverages 143 $818.23 $3,407,125
Nonalcoholic Beverages at Home 133 $602.20 $2,507,569
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 19
AGGREGATE ANNUAL SPENDING POWER (CONT’D)
Spending Average
By Merchandise Category Potential Amount
Index Spent Total
Financial
Investments 180 $2,596.25 $10,810,765
Vehicle Loans 135 $7,198.89 $29,976,166
Health
Nonprescription Drugs 134 $139.73 $581,832
Prescription Drugs 122 $670.77 $2,793,085
Eyeglasses and Contact Lenses 139 $104.71 $436,016
Home
Mortgage Payment and Basics (10)159 $14,616.66 $60,863,780
Maintenance and Remodeling Services 173 $3,659.79 $15,239,363
Maintenance and Remodeling Materials (11)157 $649.56 $2,704,750
Utilities, Fuel, and Public Services 126 $5,698.24 $23,727,462
Household Furnishings and Equipment
Household Textiles (12)155 $214.65 $893,812
Furniture 160 $1,024.96 $4,267,929
Floor Coverings 144 $125.17 $521,224
Major Appliances (13)151 $457.85 $1,906,494
Housewares (14)126 $117.91 $490,996
Small Appliances 146 $50.01 $208,237
Luggage 161 $16.23 $67,577
Telephones and Accessories 82 $36.77 $153,109
Household Operations
Child Care 139 $611.94 $2,548,115
Lawn and Garden (15)142 $584.74 $2,434,873
Moving/Storage/Freight Express 180 $96.73 $402,772
Housekeeping Supplies (16)135 $979.81 $4,079,946
Insurance
Owners and Renters Insurance 136 $642.18 $2,674,029
Vehicle Insurance 137 $1,693.17 $7,050,349
Life/Other Insurance 137 $664.06 $2,765,142
Health Insurance 131 $2,514.81 $10,471,678
Personal Care Products (17)141 $554.98 $2,310,953
School Books and Supplies (18)132 $148.32 $617,590
Smoking Products 112 $495.11 $2,061,633
Transportation
Vehicle Purchases (Net Outlay) (19)147 $7,034.15 $29,290,192
Gasoline and Motor Oil 130 $3,573.33 $14,879,340
Vehicle Maintenance and Repairs 145 $1,355.38 $5,643,815
Travel
Airline Fares 175 $746.03 $3,106,476
Lodging on Trips 161 $677.90 $2,822,796
Auto/Truck/Van Rental on Trips 175 $65.08 $271,010
Food and Drink on Trips 160 $712.62 $2,967,336
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 20
Retail Supply
An informal survey of retail spaces and property owners downtown leads to the following
observations about the local retail supply.
• Retail Ownership - NIR (Nantucket Island Resorts) is the primary retail landlord in the
downtown with about 100 retail shops/restaurants totaling approximately 100,000 SF of
space and comprises about 50% of the retail space on the island.
• The typical retail size is small - generally in the 600-800 SF range. About 50% of lessors
have stores elsewhere. The Nantucket stores are smaller than other resort areas since the
season is so short.
• Landlords are feeling downward pressure on rents now - due to downward pressure on
sales. The downtown caters to affluent visitor shoppers and seems to have done better
than counterparts in other resorts.
• According to landlords, tenants and customers, parking is a major impediment to retail
performance downtown.
• Local regulations prohibiting the entry of national and regional chains into the market
also limits downtown growth potentials.
• Despite the recession, vacancy rates are low (although concessions have been made to
preserve occupancy). At the time of our research in September, there were two vacant
store fronts on Main Street. Vacancies are due to 1-economy, 2- parking, and 3-
seasonality.
• Leases are generally annual, and stores are typically open from Daffodil Weekend
through Christmas Stroll. Typical terms include rent and % of sales (10-12%) over
natural break point. Not triple net - no CAM charges. Tenants are responsible for RE
taxes, water/sewer, landfill.
• Rents are not typically calibrated per SF as they are in other markets - each location and
space is looked at separately, generally on a per-month for the season basis. Main Street
is the premiere location achieving rents in the $125 to $150 per SF range.
• Retail in the downtown depends heavily on tourist demand – according to landlords and
tenants alike, few businesses/restaurants could survive on year round residents only.
The map on the following page shows the locations and illustrates the mix of existing downtown
retail businesses. With a few exceptions – including the mid-sized grocery store at the subject
site – the downtown mix is dominated by food and beverage and small scale, apparel and
miscellaneous retail (jewelry, artwork, antiques, home furnishings, gifts, accessories, books,
specialty food, etc.) establishments.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 21
DOWNTOWN RETAIL LOCATIONS AND MIX
As shown in the following tables, analysis of resident retail expenditure potentials and retail
sales by industry group reveals the powerful influence of visitor demand on the Nantucket retail
marketplace. In the aggregate, retail sales in Nantucket establishments exceed the retail
expenditure potentials of Island residents by over 40% - a surplus capture by local businesses of
over $215.0M annually.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 22
Supply (retail sales) estimates sales to consumers by establishments. Sales to businesses are
excluded. Demand (retail potential) estimates the expected amount spent by consumers at retail
establishments. The Leakage/Surplus Factor presents a snapshot of retail opportunity. This is a
measure of the relationship between supply and demand that ranges from +100 (total leakage) to
-100 (total surplus). A positive value represents ‘leakage’ of retail opportunity outside the trade
area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in
from outside the trade area. The Retail Gap represents the difference between Retail Potential
and Retail Sales. Retail establishments are classified into 27 industry groups in the Retail Trade
sector, as well as four industry groups within the Food Services & Drinking Establishments
subsector.
RETAIL OPPORTUNITIES
Industry Summary Demand Supply Retail Gap
Surplus /
Leakage #
(Retail Potential) (Retail Sales)
(Demand -
Supply)Factor Bus.
Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722) $157,514,120 $372,459,218 -$214,945,098 -40.6 384
Total Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45)$134,509,554 $300,007,126 -$165,497,572 -38.1 294
Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722) $23,004,566 $72,452,092 -$49,447,526 -51.8 90
Demand Supply
Surplus /
Leakage #
Industry Group (Retail Potential)(Retail Sales)Retail Gap Factor Bus.
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) $35,082,412 $26,545,368 $8,537,044 13.9 11
Automobile Dealers (NAICS 4411) $30,065,710 $18,333,040 $11,732,670 24.2 2
Other Motor Vehicle Dealers (NAICS 4412)$3,541,332 $7,469,981 ($3,928,649)-35.7 6
Auto Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores (NAICS 4413) $1,475,370 $742,347 $733,023 33.1 3
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores (NAICS 442) $7,034,667 $35,832,449 ($28,797,782)-67.2 14
Furniture Stores (NAICS 4421) $3,946,371 $22,402,580 ($18,456,209)-70.0 6
Home Furnishings Stores (NAICS 4422)$3,088,296 $13,429,869 ($10,341,573)-62.6 8
Electronics & Appliance Stores (NAICS 443/NAICS 4431) $5,343,531 $4,410,734 $932,797 9.6 9
Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores (NAICS 444 $6,872,046 $10,180,242 ($3,308,196)-19.4 15
Building Material and Supplies Dealers (NAICS 4441)$6,342,907 $6,985,721 ($642,814)-4.8 8
Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores (NAICS $529,139 $3,194,521 ($2,665,382)-71.6 7
Food & Beverage Stores (NAICS 445)$33,888,068 $104,574,435 ($70,686,367)-51.1 35
Grocery Stores (NAICS 4451) $29,235,079 $81,102,760 ($51,867,681)-47.0 8
Specialty Food Stores (NAICS 4452) $1,740,339 $11,569,350 ($9,829,011) -73.8 19
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (NAICS 4453) $2,912,650 $11,902,325 ($8,989,675)-60.7 8
Health & Personal Care Stores (NAICS 446/NAICS 4461)$5,988,778 $11,381,690 ($5,392,912)-31.0 9
Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447/NAICS 4471) $17,875,861 $33,649,905 ($15,774,044)-30.6 4
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) $9,365,127 $45,840,289 ($36,475,162)-66.1 70
Clothing Stores (NAICS 4481)$7,791,115 $36,969,419 ($29,178,304)-65.2 46
Shoe Stores (NAICS 4482) $427,305 $1,807,510 ($1,380,205)-61.8 4
Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores (NAICS 4483 $1,146,707 $7,063,360 ($5,916,653)-72.1 20
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (NAICS 45 $3,474,540 $9,959,765 ($6,485,225)-48.3 30
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instrument Stores (NAICS 4 $2,242,022 $7,875,384 ($5,633,362)-55.7 27
Book, Periodical, and Music Stores (NAICS 4512)$1,232,518 $2,084,381 ($851,863)-25.7 3
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 23
RETAIL OPPORTUNITIES
Demand Supply Surplus / #
Industry Group (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Retail Gap Factor Bus.
General Merchandise Stores (NAICS 452) $2,586,966 $2,926,879 -$339,913 -6.2 2
Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. (NAICS 4521)$0 $0 $0 0.0 0
Other General Merchandise Stores (NAICS 4529)$2,586,966 $2,926,879 -$339,913 -6.2 2
Miscellaneous Store Retailers (NAICS 453)$4,299,016 $13,211,044 -$8,912,028 -50.9 93
Florists (NAICS 4531) $410,895 $1,238,837 -$827,942 -50.2 5
Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores (NAICS 4532) $1,189,349 $2,687,744 -$1,498,395 -38.6 20
Used Merchandise Stores (NAICS 4533)$569,975 $1,629,842 -$1,059,867 -48.2 25
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (NAICS 4539) $2,128,797 $7,654,621 -$5,525,824 -56.5 43
Nonstore Retailers (NAICS 454) $2,698,542 $1,494,326 $1,204,216 28.7 2
Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses (NAICS 4541) $1,363,943 $777,231 $586,712 27.4 1
Vending Machine Operators (NAICS 4542)$0 $0 $0 0.0 0
Direct Selling Establishments (NAICS 4543) $1,334,599 $717,095 $617,504 30.1 1
Food Services & Drinking Places (NAICS 722)$23,004,566 $72,452,092 -$49,447,526 -51.8 90
Full-Service Restaurants (NAICS 7221) $16,294,116 $53,700,610 -$37,406,494 -53.4 62
Limited-Service Eating Places (NAICS 7222)$4,712,414 $8,434,674 -$3,722,260 -28.3 12
Special Food Services (NAICS 7223) $1,905,342 $6,963,958 -$5,058,616 -57.0 14
Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages (NAICS 7224) $92,694 $3,352,850 -$3,260,156 -94.6 2
BY NAICS SUBSECTOR
-100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Food Services & Drinking Places <--Surplus--Leakage--
>
NAICS
Industry
Subsector
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 24
BY NAICS INDUSTRY GROUP
-100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Automobile Dealers
Other Motor Vehicle Dealers
Auto Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores
Furniture Stores
Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Building Material and Supplies Dealers
Law n and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores
Grocery Stores
Specialty Food Stores
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing Stores
Shoe Stores
Jew elry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instrument Stores
Book, Periodical, and Music Stores
Department Stores (Excluding Leased Depts.)
Other General Merchandise Stores
Florists
Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores
Used Merchandise Stores
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses
Vending Machine Operators
Direct Selling Establishments
Full-Service Restaurants
Limited-Service Eating Places
Special Food Services
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)
<--Surplus--Leakage-->
NAICS
Industry
Group
Key Market Observations
On average, retail sales are projected to grow by only 6% over the next five years, an annual rate
of growth of 1.2%, underpinned by the slow growth of resident demand and the anticipated slow
pace of economic recovery in the larger non-resident marketplace (normalization expected in the
2013 to 2015 period). Analysis suggests that opportunities for significant retail development in
the near term are limited, and that growth in the mid- to longer terms will be very much tied to
the implementation of effective management and marketing strategies and supportive business
incentives rather than to underlying economic expansion.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 25
Finally, parking is seen as a paramount issue in this market. During the summer months the
downtown area is “controlled mayhem” according to one person interviewed – as parking is at a
premium and parking enforcement policies are cited as a major frustration by business owners
and customers alike.
Residential Market Analysis
Residential Demand
Residential market analysis studies the factors that contribute to the supply of and demand for
housing units. Demand for housing is typically generated by population and household growth
while the income and age characteristics of households residing within the market play an
important role in segmenting aggregate demand by housing unit type (single-family, apartments,
townhouses, etc.).
New demand may also generated by the changing housing needs of households within a market
and in Nantucket’s case, by external demand from seasonal users. Demand analysis, therefore,
must study the local household characteristics and growth trends as well as housing tenure trends
and patterns.
As previously discussed, Nantucket’s year-round household numbers are forecast to grow at
roughly 50 households per year over the next five years with 250 new households expected to be
formed by 2014. The following table profiles the age-income distribution of household growth
anticipated within the Nantucket market over the next five years.
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH - AGE AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Household Growth 2009-2014 Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Total
and Age of Householder <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
<$15,000 2 5 -2 -6 -9 2 4 -4
$15,000 - $24,999 0 -1 -9 -2 -7 4 0 -15
$25,000 - $34,999 0 -6 -13 -5 -2 4 4 -18
$35,000 - $49,999 0 9 -16 -2 12 13 3 19
$50,000 - $74,999 -6 25 -32 8 43 37 21 96
$75,000 - $99,999 1 7 8 19 8 15 12 70
$100,000 - $149,999 -3 -3 -22 -27 40 9 -4 -10
$150,000 - $199,999 -1 22 2 11 12 13 -2 57
$200,000 - $249,999 -3 0 -7 0 2 14 1 7
$250,000 - $499,999 0 1 9 2 11 15 -1 37
$500,000 + 0 0 1 1 4 3 0 9
Household Totals -10 59 -81 -1 114 129 38 248
The most significant increases are expected in the older (55+) and younger (25-34) households
with declines expected in the 35 to 54 and under 25 year old age brackets. Growth is further
typified by household concentrations in the $50,000 to $100,000 and $150,000+ brackets.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 26
From an affordability standpoint, household income correlates generally with the supportable
home prices and rents as illustrated in the following table. The Area Median Income (AMI) for
Nantucket County is $88,900. The first four rows of the table illustrate home ownership
affordability at 50%, 80%, 100% and 120% of AMI.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY THRESHOLDS
HH Occ Cost = Monthy Adj. for Mortgage Low High Low High % Low High
Income 30% Rent Taxes/Ins Payment Int. Int. Mortgage Mortgage Down Home Price Home Price
44,450$ 13,335$ 1,111$ 9,035$ 753$ 5.00% 6.00% 130,000$ 140,000$ 3% 134,000$ 144,000$
71,120$ 21,336$ 1,778$ 17,036$ 1,420$ 5.00% 6.00% 240,000$ 260,000$ 5% 253,000$ 274,000$
88,900$ 26,670$ 2,223$ 21,270$ 1,773$ 5.00% 6.00% 300,000$ 330,000$ 5% 316,000$ 347,000$
106,680$ 32,004$ 2,667$ 26,604$ 2,217$ 5.00% 6.00% 370,000$ 410,000$ 10% 411,000$ 456,000$
75,000$ 22,500$ 1,875$ 18,200$ 1,517$ 5.00% 6.00% 250,000$ 280,000$ 10% 278,000$ 311,000$
100,000$ 30,000$ 2,500$ 24,600$ 2,050$ 5.00% 6.00% 340,000$ 380,000$ 10% 378,000$ 422,000$
125,000$ 37,500$ 3,125$ 30,500$ 2,542$ 5.00% 6.00% 420,000$ 470,000$ 20% 525,000$ 588,000$
150,000$ 45,000$ 3,750$ 38,000$ 3,167$ 5.00% 6.00% 530,000$ 590,000$ 20% 663,000$ 738,000$
200,000$ 60,000$ 5,000$ 53,000$ 4,417$ 5.00% 6.00% 740,000$ 820,000$ 20% 925,000$ 1,025,000$
300,000$ 90,000$ 7,500$ 83,000$ 6,917$ 5.00% 6.00% 1,150,000$ 1,290,000$ 20% 1,438,000$ 1,613,000$
400,000$ 120,000$ 10,000$ 113,000$ 9,417$ 5.00% 6.00% 1,570,000$ 1,750,000$ 20% 1,963,000$ 2,188,000$
500,000$ 150,000$ 12,500$ 143,000$ 11,917$ 5.00% 6.00% 1,990,000$ 2,220,000$ 20% 2,488,000$ 2,775,000$
Residential Supply
In 2009, there were an estimated total of 10,750 housing units within Nantucket County, of
which 4,164 (39%) were occupied by year-round residents. Of these units 64% reflected owner
units and 36% reflected rental housing. Fully 6,586 (61%) of Island housing units are recorded
as vacant, of which we estimate that between 90% and 95% (based on the 2000 Census
allocations) represent the seasonally occupied stock. By 2014, the total supply is forecast to
grow by roughly 5% producing an additional 250 units of year-round supply and roughly 300
units of new seasonal housing.
HOUSING UNITS BY OCCUPANCY AND TENURE
Housing Units
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Total Housing Units 9,210 100.0% 10,750 100.0% 11,322 100.0%
Occupied 3,699 40.2% 4,164 38.7% 4,412 39.0%
Owner 2,334 25.3% 2,662 24.8% 2,816 24.9%
Renter 1,365 14.8% 1,502 14.0% 1,596 14.1%
Vacant 5,511 59.8% 6,586 61.3% 6,910 61.0%
Census 2000 2009 2014
Census 2000 Vacant Housing Units by Status Number Percent
Total 5,511 100.0%
For Rent 56 1.0%
For Sale Only 57 1.0%
Rented/Sold, Unoccupied 67 1.2%
Seasonal/Recreational/Occasional Use 5,170 93.8%
For Migrant Workers 10 0.2%
Other Vacant 151 2.7%
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 27
As indicated in the following table, the vast majority of Nantucket residences are single-family
detached units (80% of the year-round residences in 2000) with single-family attached
(rowhouse/townhouse), duplex and 3- to 4-family structures, comprising most of the balance.
Seasonal homes are even more heavily concentrated in single-family product reflecting over
90% of these units. Multi-family supply is very limited, reflecting the market’s preference for
single family, ownership product.
HOUSING SUPPLY ATTRIBUTES – 2000 CENSUS
Census 2000 Housing Units
in Structure and Occupancy Number Percent Number Percent
Total 9,210 100.0%3,699 100.0%
1, Detached 7,964 86.5% 2,960 80.0%
1, Attached 361 3.9% 132 3.6%
2 551 6.0% 378 10.2%
3 to 4 164 1.8%127 3.4%
5 to 9 84 0.9% 23 0.6%
10 to 19 34 0.4% 34 0.9%
20 to 49 35 0.4%35 0.9%
50 or More 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Mobile Home 17 0.2%10 0.3%
Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Housing Units Occupied Units
YEAR STRUCTURE
BUILT # Units % ot Total
2000 250 2.70
Built 1995 to 1998 1,373 14.90
Built 1990 to 1994 889 9.70
Built 1980 to 1989 1,631 17.70
Built 1970 to 1979 1,490 16.20
Built 1960 to 1969 575 6.20
Built 1950 to 1959 558 6.10
Built 1940 to 1949 236 2.60
Built 1939 or earlier 2,208 24.00
Median 1977 (X)
# BEDROOMS # Units % ot Total
No bedroom2282.50
1 bedroom97010.50
2 bedrooms2,21524.00
3 bedrooms3,24135.20
4 bedrooms1,76319.10
5 or more bedrooms7938.60
In keeping with the high single-family unit concentration, three-bedroom units dominate the
mix (as of the 2000 Census), with significant distributions in the smaller, 0 to 2 bedroom (total
37%) and larger four to five bedroom-plus categories (total 27.7%).
Fully 15% of structures had been built in the 4 years leading up to the census, an average
delivery of over 300 units per year. Fully 45% of Nantucket structures had been built in the
prior twenty years - since 1980.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 28
As shown in the table which follows, in the nine years following the completion of the 2000
Census, building permits were issued in Nantucket for an additional 1,790 units, of which
1,707 were for single family homes. This equates to average housing production on the order
of 200 units per year for the period.
BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY
Building
Permit
Activity
Single-
Family
Bldgs
Single-
Family
Units
Single-
Family
Valuation
2-Fam
Bldgs
2-Fam
Units
2-Family
Valuation
3 + 4
Family
Bldgs
3 + 4
Family
Units
3 + 4
Family
Valuation
5 +
Family
Bldgs
5 +
Family
Units
5 +
Family
Valuation
2008 76 76 42,743,525$ 6 12 2,283,334$ - - -$ - - -$
2007 139 139 74,264,851$ - - -$ - - -$ - - -$
2006 168 168 81,877,003$ - - -$ - - -$ - - -$
2005 260 260 121,358,725$ - - -$ - - -$ - - -$
2004 267 267 106,271,609$ - - -$ 2 8 880,000$ - - -$
2003 196 196 80,930,145$ 2 4 750,000$ 3 12 1,280,000$ - - -$
2002 173 173 61,794,052$ 2 4 620,000$ - - -$ - - -$
2001 243 243 97,471,165$ 4 8 740,500$ 1 3 288,000$ - - -$
2000 185 185 60,754,077$ 16 32 2,827,312$ - - -$ - - -$
Totals 1,707 1,707 727,465,152 30 60 7,221,146 6 23 2,448,000 - - -
Nantucket’s owner-occupied housing values are high with over 57% valued at over $1.0M in
2009 and a median of $1.0M. On average, values are forecast to hold relatively steady over the
next five years.
OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING VALUES
Owner OccupiedHousing Units Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Total 2,333 100.0% 2,662 100.0% 2,816 100.0%
< $10,000 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$10,000 - $14,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$15,000 - $19,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$20,000 - $24,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$25,000 - $29,999 10 0.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$30,000 - $34,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$35,000 - $39,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$40,000 - $49,999 0 0.0% 3 0.1% 1 0.0%
$50,000 - $59,999 4 0.2% 8 0.3% 3 0.1%
$60,000 - $69,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 7 0.2%$70,000 - $79,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 0.0%$80,000 - $89,999 6 0.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
$90,000 - $99,999 0 0.0% 1 0.0% 0 0.0%
$100,000 - $124,999 6 0.3% 3 0.1% 3 0.1%
$125,000 - $149,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 3 0.1%
$150,000 - $174,999 7 0.3% 7 0.3% 5 0.2%
$175,000 - $199,999 6 0.3% 1 0.0% 4 0.1%
$200,000 - $249,999 80 3.4% 5 0.2% 4 0.1%$250,000 - $299,999 144 6.2% 3 0.1% 3 0.1%$300,000 - $399,999 279 12.0% 29 1.1% 21 0.7%
$400,000 - $499,999 385 16.5% 122 4.6% 104 3.7%
$500,000 - $749,999 717 30.7% 434 16.3% 445 15.8%
$750,000 - $999,999 336 14.4% 521 19.6% 510 18.1%$1,000,000 + 353 15.1% 1,525 57.3% 1,702 60.4%
Median Value $583,508 $1,000,001 $1,000,001
Average Value $649,729 $1,015,292 $1,033,666
Census 2000 2009 2014
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 29
Actual sale data compiled from the Registry of Deeds and reported by the Warren Group for the
Nantucket market is profiled below for the period 1990 to 2009 and reveals the rapid rise in
market pricing over the last few years as well as the drop in pricing experienced in 2009 (-
20.33%). A decline of this magnitude has not been seen on Nantucket since the recession of
1991 when median prices fell by 17.68% from $237,500 to $195,500. Despite the decrease, the
2009 median sale price for all product types was $1,195,000; $1,250,000 for single family homes
and $475,000 for condominiums. These statistics provide evidence of the pressures being
exerted on year-round residents as median incomes do not support median market prices.
SALE PRICE TRENDS 1990-2009
Year Period 1-Fam Condo All Year Period 1-Fam Condo All
2009 Jan - Nov $1,250,000 $475,000 $1,195,000 2009 Jan - Nov -20.26% -15.56% -20.33%
2008 Jan - Dec $1,567,500 $562,500 $1,500,000 2008 Jan - Dec -7.25%10.29%10.91%
2007 Jan - Dec $1,690,000 $510,000 $1,352,500 2007 Jan - Dec 9.03% -17.67% 4.04%
2006 Jan - Dec $1,550,000 $619,460 $1,300,000 2006 Jan - Dec 4.03% 12.83% 4.21%
2005 Jan - Dec $1,490,000 $549,000 $1,247,500 2005 Jan - Dec 26.81% 25.38%
2004 Jan - Dec $1,175,000 $995,000 2004 Jan - Dec 27.03%17.06%
2003 Jan - Dec $925,000 $850,000 2003 Jan - Dec 19.35% -100.00% 30.77%
2002 Jan - Dec $775,000 $368,000 $650,000 2002 Jan - Dec -2.52% 21.65% 0.15%
2001 Jan - Dec $795,000 $302,500 $649,000 2001 Jan - Dec 2.84%-6.92%-2.41%
2000 Jan - Dec $773,075 $325,000 $665,000 2000 Jan - Dec 37.44% 94.03% 45.36%
1999 Jan - Dec $562,500 $167,500 $457,500 1999 Jan - Dec 16.34% -26.37% 21.68%
1998 Jan - Dec $483,500 $227,500 $376,000 1998 Jan - Dec 19.90% 1.11% 15.69%
1997 Jan - Dec $403,250 $225,000 $325,000 1997 Jan - Dec 16.88% 2.27% 30.00%
1996 Jan - Dec $345,000 $220,000 $250,000 1996 Jan - Dec 29.33% -2.22% 6.79%
1995 Jan - Dec $266,750 $225,000 $234,100 1995 Jan - Dec 18.56% 157.14% 10.42%
1994 Jan - Dec $225,000 $87,500 $212,000 1994 Jan - Dec 2.51%-46.97%11.58%
1993 Jan - Dec $219,500 $165,000 $190,000 1993 Jan - Dec -13.92% -8.84% 2.88%
1992 Jan - Dec $255,000 $181,006 $184,673 1992 Jan - Dec 13.33% 11.49% -5.54%
1991 Jan - Dec $225,000 $162,350 $195,500 1991 Jan - Dec -22.75%-43.04%-17.68%
1990 Jan - Dec $291,250 $285,000 $237,500 1990 Jan - Dec 0.00% 5.07% -9.78%
Median Sale Prices % Change From Prior Year
While prices climbed fairly steadily though the 2000’s decade until the recent 2009 drop, sale
activity levels have been in decline for some time - since 2005. As shown in the table that
follows, only 194 sales had been recorded in Nantucket as of November 2009 as compared with
574 transactions during the peak 2005 year. More revealing are the dramatic swings in sale
activity levels over the last two decades, which serves to underscore Nantucket’s reliance on
discretionary second home purchasing and the relative sensitivity of this highly seasonal market
to external economic shock.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 30
SALE ACTIVITY TRENDS 1990-2009
Year Period 1-Fam Condo All Year Period 1-Fam Condo All
2009 Jan - Nov 94 21 194 2009 Jan - Nov -4.08% -12.50% -21.46%
2008 Jan - Dec 98 24 247 2008 Jan - Dec -33.33%-52.94%-32.14%
2007 Jan - Dec 147 51 364 2007 Jan - Dec -14.04% -32.00% -14.55%
2006 Jan - Dec 171 75 426 2006 Jan - Dec -25.65% 20.97% -25.78%
2005 Jan - Dec 230 62 574 2005 Jan - Dec -18.15%6100.00%1.23%
2004 Jan - Dec 281 1 567 2004 Jan - Dec 34.45% 0.00% 37.29%
2003 Jan - Dec 209 1 413 2003 Jan - Dec 14.21% -97.22% 1.47%
2002 Jan - Dec 183 36 407 2002 Jan - Dec 26.21% 38.46% 10.30%
2001 Jan - Dec 145 26 369 2001 Jan - Dec -38.03% 73.33% -28.07%
2000 Jan - Dec 234 15 513 2000 Jan - Dec -1.68% -55.88% -2.84%
1999 Jan - Dec 238 34 528 1999 Jan - Dec -6.30% 25.93% -14.70%
1998 Jan - Dec 254 27 619 1998 Jan - Dec 13.39%22.73%14.42%
1997 Jan - Dec 224 22 541 1997 Jan - Dec 9.27% -56.86% -6.56%
1996 Jan - Dec 205 51 579 1996 Jan - Dec -14.58% 168.42% 14.20%
1995 Jan - Dec 240 19 507 1995 Jan - Dec -15.19%-9.52%-2.69%
1994 Jan - Dec 283 21 521 1994 Jan - Dec 10.55% 10.53% 11.09%
1993 Jan - Dec 256 19 469 1993 Jan - Dec 49.71% -13.64% 14.39%
1992 Jan - Dec 171 22 410 1992 Jan - Dec 28.57% 10.00% 20.59%
1991 Jan - Dec 133 20 340 1991 Jan - Dec 9.02% 100.00% 18.88%
1990 Jan - Dec 122 10 286 1990 Jan - Dec -1.61% -9.09% -8.63%
% Change From Prior YearNumber of Sales
The rental apartment market is seen as relatively thin (for year-round occupants) as the
overwhelming market preference leans heavily toward ownership product. We note, however,
that the following table, from the Town’s April 2009 Masterplan, shows the Town’s affordable
rental aspirations and performance to date and suggests that affordable rental demand remains to
be satisfied.
AFFORDABLE RENTAL ASSESSMENT
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 31
Key Market Observations
On average, growth in resident and seasonal demand is expected to yield a need for up to 550
new housing units in Nantucket over the course of the next 5 years. Analysis suggests an
overwhelming market preference for single-family ownership (detached-attached-rowhouse-
townhouse-duplex) residences in both the year-round and seasonal buyer markets. Market rate
rental development does not appear to be marketable or feasible. Apartment style units (flats,
duplexes) may have some appeal for the seasonal market if they can be positioned to exploit
water views or other nearby amenities. Opportunities for significant housing development in
Nantucket are likely to be constrained by the economics of construction which will continue to
drive prices higher but more critical in our view is the pace of unit absorption which is expected
to be slow in the near term.
Hotel Market Analysis
Hotel Demand
Hotel market analysis studies the factors that contribute to the supply of and demand for hotel
rooms. Demand for hotels is typically generated by tourist/leisure, corporate business and group
activity in the market. The dominance of any one of these groups in a market can play an
important role in defining the nature of the hotel supply needed to satisfy the demand, as each
segment has different product requirements.
The Nantucket hospitality market is, of course dominated by leisure demand, with some
influence from the group segment and is highly seasonal, with most establishments shuttered for
the winter months. The tone of Leisure and Group demand in the Nantucket market is influenced
strongly by its accessibility to the large and relatively affluent cities in the Northeast Corridor and by
western European visitors.
The season is generally defined as running from Daffodil Festival in April to the Christmas Stroll
weekend in early December with the busiest activity in the 100 days between July 4th and Labor
Day. The table below shows ferry ridership between Hyannis and Nantucket Harbor on a
monthly basis and illustrates the seasonality of the market. As indicated, fully 62% of ridership
occurs during 4 months - June to September.
Activity at the Nantucket Airport tells a similar story with over 52% of enplanements occurring
during the summer months.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 32
NANTUCKET STEAMSHIP AUTHORITY RIDERSHIP TRENDS
Passengers - Hyannis to Nantucket and Return
Nantucket Steamship Authority
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
1997 14,244 14,771 17,206 27,680 45,897 58,905 77,371 86,671 55,293 51,273 23,787 24,096 497,194
1998 15,120 14,604 18,114 29,095 52,470 67,806 97,857 103,805 71,368 58,018 29,304 26,809 584,370
1999 14,640 14,764 16,177 32,846 52,101 65,021 98,721 105,386 64,369 50,306 26,002 25,862 566,195
2000 15,285 14,625 18,114 26,917 46,578 69,865 98,693 105,754 72,513 56,743 28,488 24,985 578,560
2001 14,089 13,137 14,352 27,436 51,465 73,486 104,505 112,387 72,533 55,144 35,461 30,030 604,025
2002 17,142 14,498 18,817 35,927 - 73,436 99,935 117,412 67,941 47,602 26,628 30,093 549,431
2003 14,638 13,321 19,102 30,576 49,347 67,442 96,835 108,107 60,810 50,497 27,511 20,504 558,690
2004 10,957 10,426 14,909 30,063 47,034 56,970 90,203 96,423 62,091 43,000 24,910 22,004 508,990
2005 10,847 11,587 16,292 26,926 40,438 62,380 95,373 101,263 57,997 38,538 25,569 24,588 511,798
2006 12,165 10,781 13,906 26,688 43,629 60,268 92,555 103,042 61,044 40,054 25,451 25,854 515,437
2007 11,731 10,730 14,106 28,432 47,345 68,125 97,147 108,411 65,540 47,162 27,155 23,322 549,206
2008 11,031 11,520 12,968 25,071 44,157 61,249 94,096 111,860 53,087 43,576 26,471 22,760 517,846
2009 10,682 10,678 11,734 25,760 45,999 56,485 97,595 109,895 368,828
Average 13,275 12,726 15,831 28,724 43,574 64,726 95,453 105,417 63,716 48,493 27,228 25,076 531,582
Average - % of Total 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 5.4% 8.2% 12.2% 18.0% 19.8% 12.0% 9.1% 5.1% 4.7%
CAGR 1997-2008 -2.3% -2.2% -2.5% -0.9% -0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 2.3% -0.4% -1.5% 1.0% -0.5% 0.4%
CAGR 2003-2008 -5.5% -2.9% -7.5% -3.9% -2.2% -1.9% -0.6% 0.7% -2.7% -2.9% -0.8% 2.1% -1.5%
Avg % Total Jun-Sep 61.9%
NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AIRPORT ENPLANEMENT TRENDS
Monthly Passenger Enplanements
Nantucket Memorial Airport
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
1986 - BASE YR 4,995 5,431 7,379 9,043 12,962 18,239 28,609 32,798 21,444 13,652 8,064 7,908 170,524
2000 14,839 13,185 15,224 19,511 26,361 32,278 44,390 43,248 32,804 24,060 17,897 18,394 302,191
2005 9,156 11,642 13,515 16,826 20,439 25,255 34,000 38,591 27,007 20,461 17,011 15,099 249,002
2006 11,927 12,441 15,422 18,074 21,716 25,756 36,693 39,415 29,055 23,168 18,869 16,900 269,436
2007 14,817 15,132 16,513 17,629 23,758 28,000 38,049 41,998 28,966 21,094 16,557 15,620 278,133
2008 14,096 13,643 16,213 18,595 22,790 28,585 36,198 40,611 22,966 18,681 13,154 12,283 257,815
2009 9,796 9,502 11,252 13,712 17,063 21,281 30,288 34,380 147,274
Average 2000-2009 12,439 12,591 14,690 17,391 22,021 26,859 36,603 39,707 28,160 21,493 16,698 15,659 250,642
Average - % of total 5.0% 5.0% 5.9% 6.9% 8.8% 10.7% 14.6% 15.8% 11.2% 8.6% 6.7% 6.2%
CAGR 2000-2008 -0.7% 0.5% 0.9% -0.7% -2.1% -1.7% -2.9% -0.9% -5.0% -3.6% -4.3% -5.6% -2.2%
Avg % Total Jun - Sep 52.4%
Beyond the fluctuations throughout the year, hotel demand, especially the leisure market segment, is
also extremely sensitive to economic conditions, as travel dollars are highly discretionary. And 2009
was a very difficult year for hotels as illustrated by statistics published by Pinnacle Advisory Group
and the Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism (MOTT) - with commensurate impacts in the
Nantucket hospitality market.
Rates and occupancy for 2009 were both off dramatically with multiplicative effects on revenues per
available room (RevPAR).
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 33
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 34
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 35
MASSACHUSETTS LODGING TRENDS
Based on National and Statewide YTD performance through October, Leisure demand is
expected to experience an overall decrease of nearly 20% in 2009 when the year-end data has
been compiled. Group Demand has also been severely impacted as a result of the negative press
following the “AIG” event in which the company was revealed to have spent heavily on a lavish
management getaway subsequent to being given federal bailout monies. Nantucket’s loss of the
annual Wachovia sales event this year which typically can be counted on for 1,000+ rooms in
July is seen as a victim of the banking crisis. This business is not expected to return in light of
the current public perception of such events being held in resort locations. Statewide
performance in Group demand declined approximately 18% YTD through October 2009 from
2008 levels.
Hospitality market stabilization is not expected to occur until well into the 2014 to 2016 period.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 36
As illustrated by the following tables from MOTT, Nantucket experienced a significant and
growing capture of domestic travel expenditures in recent years. Interestingly, travel-related
payroll was flat even during the run up to 2009, indicating that increased capture delivered
improved performance rather than supply expansion and illustrates that the barriers to new
supply additions are significant in the Nantucket market.
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Hotel Supply
As illustrated by the table below, according to Smith Travel Research, 44 hotels currently make
up the Nantucket supply, supporting an inventory of 865 rooms an average of 20 rooms per
property.
NANTUCKET LODGING SUPPLY
Summary of Lodging Facilities on Nantucket
Smith Travel ResearchSTR Code Name of Establishment A ff Date Open Date Rooms
54097 Ship`s Inn 12
54065 The White House 4
54066 Union Street Inn Jun 1923 Jun 1923 12
54094 The Summer House Fair Street 12
54098 The Grey Lady Sep 1972 Sep 1972 6
54096 Nantucket Whaler Guest House 10
54095 The Summer House India Street 10
54089 Three Hussey Street Guesthouse 5
54091 The Pineapple Inn Jun 1993 Jun 1993 12
54090 Le Languedoc Inn 8
54075 Centerboard Guest House Jun 1975 Jun 1975 9
54074 The Century House 14
54073 Martin House Inn Jun 1925 Jun 1925 13
54076 Centre Street Inn 13
44473 Veranda House 16
54078 Carlisle House Inn 14
54077 Nesbitt Inn 15
54072 Safe Harbor Jun 1924 Jun 1924 5
53976 Brass Lantern Inn Jun 1930 Jun 1930 16
54063 Seven Sea Street Inn Jun 1986 Jun 1986 15
54064 Sherburne Inn 8
54071 76 Main Street Inn Jun 1950 Jun 1950 20
54070 72 Centre Street Inn 5
54069 Anchor Inn 11
54085 The Chestnut House Sep 1981 Sep 1981 6
31201 Nantucket Inn Jun 1986 Jun 1986 100
54084 Cobblestone Inn Jun 1987 Jun 1987 7
54086 Hawthorn House Jun 1984 Jun 1984 9
28403 Wauwinet Inn 33
54088 Cliff Lodge 12
54087 Island Reef Guest House Jun 1967 Jun 1967 12
54083 House Of The Seven Gables 10
54079 The Carriage House 7
43028 Manor House Inn 15
43029 Periwinkle Guest House 17
38782 Cliffside Beach Club Jun 1984 Jun 1984 27
54082 Easton House May 1910 May 1910 11
54080 Brant Point Inn Jun 1986 Jun 1986 8
11125 White Elephant Resort Sep 1996 Jun 1962 65
White Elephant Residences 40
14757 Beachside Resort Jun 1966 Jun 1966 93
14763 Roberts House Inn 36
14760 Cottages @ The Boat Basin Jun 1998 Jun 1962 33
14762 Jared Coffin House 51
54099 Vanessa Noel Hotel 8
Total Hotel Rooms 865
Num ber of Hotels 44
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Historically, the room count on the island was reportedly closer to 1,300-1,400 rooms. However,
in recent years many inns/B & B’s have been sold and converted to single-family homes.
The larger properties are the White Elephant (105 rooms - including the Residences, on the
Harbor), the Nantucket Inn (100 rooms – at the Airport), Beachside Resort (93 rooms – between
Jetties Beach and Brant Point) and Jared Coffin House (51 rooms – in the downtown and which
is the only property that remains open year round. Notably, it does not offer F & B service in the
off- season).
2009 was definitely a challenging summer – interestingly, occupancy in many of the hotels
declined only slightly, while average rate declined at a greater rate. The Nantucket Inn was an
exception – they lost occupancy too as the TSA required fewer rooms due to fewer passengers at
the airport. Overall, travelers still came to the Island – but were looking for a deal.
In addition, operators reported that there was more competition between rental homes and hotels
– in some cases it was cheaper to rent a single family home than stay in a hotel. Part of this may
be due to the number of homes for sale and the willingness of owners to rent the properties given
the long selling time frames. Depending upon how quickly the economy rebounds – this pattern
may continue through 2010.
Interviews with area hotel managers indicated that if they stay flat in 2010 they will be happy.
Interestingly, all were reporting that the 2010 wedding season looks strong – which is
encouraging. And there is a strong push to get visitors to the Island in the shoulder season.
Key Market Observations
The national and regional lodging markets continue to suffer disproportionately from the effects
of the recession, with luxury product experiencing the greatest effects. The Nantucket market is
not immune and will be several years in the recovery mode. While the barriers to entry in this
market are high, the demand for seasonal, waterfront lodging is strong and can be attracted if the
product can be positioned and priced to meet the market potential. New product delivery in the
Nantucket market is not seen as marketable before 2016. And analysis suggests that the product
attributes should be aimed at a limited service, more moderately priced alternative to the existing
luxury competitors. The ability to control operating costs and keep development costs down will
be essential to feasibility.
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DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS
The presence of market demand alone is not sufficient for new development to succeed and
thrive. The proximity to and nature of a site’s direct demand sources, the quality, maturity and
walk-ability of the site’s physical environment, the synergistic programming of site uses, the
availability of parking and/or accessibility to transportation, the project design and the
underlying business economics all have a profound affect on whether and what kind of uses can
succeed in a particular project or site. The following is a list of observations regarding the
development attributes and economic features of a successful development at Wilkes Square
gleaned from our analysis of the site.
Conditions for Success
Macro Location
Nantucket’s New England island location creates a captive resident demand condition - at the
same time, the year-round market is finite and slow growing and vulnerable to economic change.
Nantucket’s ability to draw demand from outside its boundaries and to extend its draw in the fall
and spring seasons will continue to be the critical factor for the performance of the existing
markets and for the future development potentials at Wilkes Square.
Micro Location
Projects with direct adjacencies to major demand generators such as visitor attractions, major
employment sources, public meeting/assembly facilities, solid residential neighborhoods, transit
centers, etc. all enjoy better opportunities for development success. The Wilkes Square location
relative to the downtown business district, to the waterfront in general and the Hy-Line ferry
dock and Boat Basin in particular, to the public bus terminal and to the walking proximate
population density of the surrounding residential neighborhood enhance the potential drawing
power and feasibility of development at the site.
Pedestrian Access and Visibility
Retail and hospitality uses in particular do best when they can be seen directly from the street
and feel easily accessible on foot without barriers such as escalators, elevators, major street
crossings, bridges, walls, fences, etc. Improving access to the ferry and bus terminal, making
safer pedestrian and bicycle connections to and through the existing downtown and waterfront,
and creating a strong, walkable street grid with carefully integrated public open spaces, will all
be critical to the marketability and feasibility of site uses and to the economic success of the
plan.
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Vehicular Access and Parking
It is rare for development to be feasible or financeable without parking. Ironically, most
redevelopment plans are actually driven by their parking solutions, as cars take up valuable
ground plane and development volume, displacing other uses. This is particularly problematic
when building heights are limited as they are in Nantucket – as the volume of above grade
development potential is constrained. Cars are also very expensive to accommodate, especially
if above or below grade garages are involved. In many cases it is the cost of parking that
determines a project’s financial viability (parking can cost up to $40,000 per space to build
above grade and well over $100,000 per space underground if sub-surface conditions are poor –
as they typically are in waterfront locations). So, notwithstanding the importance of pedestrian
and bicycle access and public transportation (land and water), no redevelopment at Wilkes
Square can occur without a workable plan for vehicular access and parking. We also note that
recent studies have concluded that the downtown parking supply is not sufficient to
accommodate the existing commercial and residential demand, a factor that negatively impacts
on the performance of the downtown today and constrains the economic development potentials
for both the Town and businesses alike. Any expansion of activity at Wilkes Square must fully
accommodate its own demand and should, if possible, strive to improve on the current
undersupply conditions in the downtown.
Critical Mass and Development Scale
New developments tend to do best when they are part of and feel integrated with the larger
environment. For example, stand-alone retail spaces rarely do well unless they are occupied by
destination users (restaurants and some specialty stores) or are targeted and sized to meet the
specific demands of onsite users. Likewise, too few residential units or too few hotel rooms in a
project can make a development feel insubstantial or isolated, creating marketing and operational
problems that impact feasibility. Conversely a project that is outsized or that fails to mesh well
with its surroundings can feel jarring or strange to the consumer which can negatively affect
marketability and financial performance. For Wilkes Square, like many redevelopment projects,
this means walking the fine line between creating a project that is big enough to warrant the
redevelopment effort and that can succeed operationally, but that is also compatible with and
enhances rather than detracts from the surrounding environment.
Environmental Quality and Design
Great developments contribute to and enjoy the benefits of great streets and neighborhood
surroundings. The quality of the pedestrian environment is critically important to the success of
both commercial and residential uses at the site. Retail and hospitality uses in particular succeed
best in a mature, organically grown, active, pedestrian-scaled, walk-able, attractive, urban design
context. Likewise, the residential consumer wants to look out the window and step out the front
door into an inviting, visually appealing environment. The quality of the Wilkes Square
surroundings - quintessential Nantucket waterfront - is unparalleled in this market. A project
that can take advantage of this environment while making its own positive contribution will
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enjoy greater potentials for long term success. This means ground floors that are open to the
street and to pedestrians and that invite traffic in from the outside rather than insulating and
isolating it for the benefit of onsite users alone. It also means an overall design vision that is
authentically Nantucket - that resonates with the existing historic fabric and that makes the most
of its unmatched waterfront location and views.
Development Leverage and Synergy
The most successful real estate developments make money for their owners and generate positive
impacts on their surroundings - in economic terms this leveraging effect is realized through more
stable or higher property values, increased consumer activity and sales volumes, more
employment, etc. Even within the boundaries of a large site, the effects produced by successful
mixing and siting of different program elements can produce synergies that enhance the
operational efficiencies and value of the whole – creating a development that is more feasible
and more valuable than the sum of its parts. Conversely, a poor planned project at best
squanders this potential and at worst impedes development from happening at all. At Wilkes
Square, the concepts of leverage and synergy are both vital to project success. Indeed, the high
cost of island construction (which can be 30% to 50% more than on the mainland) and the
volatility and small size of the market as we’ve already discussed, create risks that can only be
overcome through positive leverage and synergy.
Development Timing and Phasing
The real estate and financial markets are notoriously cyclical and increasingly difficult to
forecast. Successful developers and owners manage their properties for returns today, prepare
for optimal performance in the future and are ready to act opportunistically when conditions for
development or repositioning are favorable. In short, timing the market is difficult, but waiting
to take action isn’t an option either. Developers and owners that fail to plan during the market
trough are destined to miss the cresting wave when it arrives. This is especially true today,
sitting as we are in the trough of an economic recession – the time for stabilization is in sight –
with real improvement some three to five years away. Much can be done to ready the Wilkes
Square for redevelopment when the market opportunity allows – including work on the tank farm
relocation, public infrastructure and intermodal transportation center financings, environmental
investigations, site rezoning, Chapter 91 relief, streamlining local approvals, etc. If these
activities are not initiated until better times arrive – it is likely that the property redevelopment
will miss the next economic cycle.
For projects such as Wilkes Square, that are likely to be implemented over a period of time,
devising a workable and flexible parcelization and phasing plan is key to optimizing property
value and economic potentials long term. A large site that presents more than one way forward
will generally weather changing market conditions better than something more prescriptive.
That said, a flexible plan must still have a great first step. The initial phase development efforts
catalyze the future and must therefore be carefully chosen to produce these down stream
incentives and of course, they must succeed. An unsuccessful Phase 1 can ruin future
development prospects.
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For Wilkes Square, the Phase 1 effort is, we believe, best focused on preparing the site for
redevelopment with a concentration on a rezoning that supports the Town’s aspirations for the
site, work with existing owners toward public-private implementation and governance
agreements, demolition and relocation of the tank farm (and associated environmental
remediation), preparation of an infrastructure funding plan (perhaps including the an intermodal
transportation center and garage) as described above. Once the prep work is done, the site
presents several ways forward – a garage lead, a supermarket redevelopment lead, a new
residential lead, all could qualify as a good first step.
Development Feasibility
For a development to be financially feasible, the value of the project on completion – usually
measured as a function of the rents it generates or the sales is produces – must be greater than it
costs to build including the cost of the land, the bricks and mortar (or shingles), the development
soft costs (architecture fees, permitting, legal, accounting, developer overhead, construction
interest, financing fees, etc.) and the entrepreneurial incentive. On Nantucket, land (especially
waterfront land) is expensive and the costs of construction are higher than typical – by as much
as 30% to 50%. Rents and sale prices are also high – but also highly seasonal. This combination
of high land and development costs coupled with the seasonality and volatility of the resulting
revenue potentials produces thin margins for new development – even in the best economic
times.
To this point, it should be understood that in the current market, financially feasible development
at Wilkes Square is estimated to be some years away (at least 3 and for some elements of the
program - notably hospitality – probably longer). It should also be understood that no
development use of the site - now or even in the future when the economy and markets stabilize -
has the ability to shoulder development costs premiums arising from conditions such as a
protracted approvals process, environmental remediation, demolition, structured parking, major
infrastructure improvements, or the like. The financial feasibility of redevelopment at Wilkes
Square is dependent on the recovery of the underlying economy and real estate markets and on
the ability of the public sector (local, State and Federal) to help reduce the costs and uncertainties
(i.e. permits and approvals, site work, environmental, parking and infrastructure, etc.) associated
with redevelopment.
Highest and Best Use and Value Creation
Highest and best use refers to the use that is physically possible, legally permissible, supported
by the market and that generates the highest value for the underlying land. Generally, for
redevelopment of a site to occur, the highest and best use of the land must warrant the
development effort, risk taking and investment implied by new construction. For the Wilkes
Square site, the programming and development capacity studies conducted by CBT Architects
show that there are unrealized development potentials at the property, constrained today by
physical factors such as the existing improvements (esp. the tank farm) and uncertain
environmental conditions; and, by legal factors including the existing regulatory limitations of
zoning, the local review process and Chapter 91.
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Analysis of the development markets suggests that while the current economic environment is
weak, the future potentials are promising – sufficiently so to warrant an investment in planning
and preparation for the future (including work on the tank farm relocation, parking, infrastructure
and intermodal transportation center financings, additional environmental remediation, site
rezoning, Chapter 91 relief, streamlining local approvals, etc.). Typically a property that is
improved with existing buildings or under-improved will have a tendency to convert or
redevelop when the value of the land as if vacant exceeds the value of the property as it currently
sits. To position the property for future redevelopment and to unlock this future value potential
will require that the physical and legal constraints to highest and best use be modified or
removed – work that must begin now if those opportunities are to be realizable when the markets
stabilize. Preparing for the future is critical. The current uses (including the tank farm and the
supermarket and parking lot as presently configured) represent an under-improvement of the site,
but until a higher and better use is physically possible, legally permissible and financially
feasible, it is likely that these uses will remain.
Entrepreneurial Coordination and Capital Investment
Successful real estate development projects require the assembly and deployment of all of the
agents of economic production - land, labor, capital and coordination. The highest and best use
of the land must warrant the development effort, risk taking and investment implied by new
construction; human and capital resources must be available at a cost that can be supported by
the project; and, the developer/owner must have the expertise to garner the resources and
execute. If any one of these elements is absent, development cannot occur. For the Wilkes
Square site, the future highest and best use potentials are judged to be sufficient to warrant an
investment in planning and preparation for the future. That said, the development environment
is uncertain and private capital is scarce and risk adverse. Furthermore, it is not clear that the
current site owners have the technical capacity to take on a redevelopment of this complexity.
For these reasons, we believe that public leadership and investment will be required to lay the
ground work for future redevelopment at the site. The site must be rezoned to provide incentives
for development in accordance with Nantucket’s vision. Chapter 91 relief must be sought.
Greater certainty and speed must be created in the local approval process. More must be done to
understand how a relocation of the tank farm can be implemented. Environmental costs and
risks must be identified and evaluated. A public financing plan, operating plan and a land
control strategy must be devised to create an intermodal transportation center (that may or may
not include a public garage) and to support the necessary infrastructure investments on and
offsite.
We note as well that the economics of development in Nantucket - even in good times – cannot
support the premium costs associated with extensive environmental remediation, structured
parking, or major new infrastructure investments. Public funding sources will be needed to
support these costs; in all likelihood with some participation and investment - at least for the next
steps of a due diligence process - at the local level.
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Economic Development
Public sector investments in the future planning and preparations for development at Wilkes
Square will – if successful – produce a private sector redevelopment of the site. Analysis of the
site’s development potentials suggest that the returns to the Town from new property tax
revenues could more than double in a redevelopment scenario (based on the current plan). Other
economic activity may also be expected from a redevelopment including job creation (permanent
and temporary construction), increased sales revenues and taxes and greater activity for the
downtown overall. It is also important to note that if public sector development activity
produces an intermodal transportation center and/or public garage construction, the broader
downtown market stands to benefit whether private sector redevelopment of the Wilkes Square
site occurs or not.
Strong Vision with a Flexible Planning Framework
Larger scale sites, especially those with multiple owners and diverse use potentials, are most
likely to be developed in phases and over time. By their nature, these projects tend to be more
complex and more costly to develop and may have exposure to multiple real estate and political
cycles. In these cases it is especially critical that a strong conceptual framework for
redevelopment be adopted - one that is shared by the permitting authorities, by private land
holders and by the public at large. A sustaining vision of these larger sites’ future potentials
helps to buoy redevelopment implementation over time, even in the face of changing markets,
changing ownership, changing public attitudes and administrations. At the same time, the
conceptual redevelopment plans for multi-phase developments must be flexible enough to adapt
to changing conditions – presenting a vision and framework for future redevelopment not a
detailed programmatic prescription. Plans that are too narrowly focused at the conceptual stage
rarely become reality as they tend to fall apart when inevitable changes are encountered. That
said, they must offer enough detail to inspire the support and enthusiasm needed to drive
implementation forward, illustrating what the future could look like.
Economic Principles to Guide a Great Plan
The planning analyses for Wilkes Square have examined a broad range of possible futures for the
site in an effort to help articulate that sustaining vision and framework for redevelopment of the
property. The development fundamentals described above provide a broad picture of the
underlying conditions needed to produce a successful redevelopment of the site. The more
detailed plans for redevelopment, however, even at this very conceptual stage, must be carefully
crafted to capture the public and private sector aspirations for the property – economic and
otherwise. The following principles define a successful Wilkes Square redevelopment from an
economic standpoint.
A successful redevelopment of the site will be:
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An Asset to Island life year-round
o Delivering an authentic Nantucket ambiance and sensibility
o Improving the convenience (and safety) of negotiating through and in the
downtown in all seasons
o Emphasizing resident-focused services and amenities
o Mitigating the impacts of visitor congestion and competition for parking and
public rights-of-way in the peak season
An Asset to the performance of the downtown
o Drawing residents and visitors to the downtown (in the peak and off-peak
seasons)
o Lengthening the time residents and visitors spend in the downtown per trip/visit
o Extending/enhancing the performance of the downtown in the off-peak months
o Providing additional parking (beyond what’s needed on site) to serve the
downtown
An Asset to the fiscal health of the Town
o Leveraging the value of an underutilized waterfront site
o Leveraging the value of surrounding properties in the downtown
o Creating additional tax revenues from both
o Generating additional employment opportunities – temporary and permanent
An Asset to the current and future owners of the site
o Creating value above and beyond what is currently allowed (more density
permitted than by-right options)
o Providing a path to redevelopment within a clear and predictable regulatory
framework (a plan not a prescription)
o Providing incentives for cooperation and planning across property boundaries
(making the whole worth more than the sum of the parts)
o Leveraging private investment by using public funding sources to underwrite
expensive infrastructure and transportation improvements (recognizing value
given for value gotten)
o Offering the opportunity for a reasonable return on both public and private
investment capital as measured in $$$ and intangible public benefits
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PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS
A multi-disciplinary analysis of redevelopment programming alternatives was undertaken for the
site, grounded in the public’s aspirations for the property, the market and development analyses
described by this report and urban design principles put forward by CBT, the consulting
architects and planners for the project. A range of options were explored from - status quo
alternatives that assume little or no public intervention or involvement – to more proactive
redevelopment approaches that assume public participation in seeding the future potentials of the
property. Each of these plans illustrates a mix of residential, retail, hotel and other commercial
and institutional uses as well as parking designed to meet identified market demand, the key
development feasibility parameters and economic objectives for the plan.
The analysis assumes that economic improvements anticipated over the next five-plus years will
deliver financial performance and viability in keeping with past measures. The basic attributes
and economic characteristics of these program building blocks are summarized as follows.
Land Use Elements
A Vibrant Local Marketplace
¾ Anchored by a mid-sized/multi-function grocery – modeled after Whole Foods or Trader
Joe’s in terms of merchandising…but not necessarily these operators. The economic
feasibility could benefit from the entrepreneurial motivations of an existing on-island
operator and/or the developer of other uses on the site. To this point, it is likely that some
form of operating subsidy will be required in the early years to get the concept going and
to overcome the inertia of the existing grocery operation.
¾ The successful concept could include ancillary functions such as a seasonal farmer’s
market, a crafts market, prepared foods, box lunches, catering or demonstration kitchen,
outdoor vending areas, café/coffee house, or other public gathering places.
¾ The larger grocery store footprint would lend itself to upper floor uses that might benefit
from same – suggesting an opportunity for entertainment venues (bowling alley, arcade,
climbing wall, golf practice facility, or other indoor activity center perhaps with a youth-
orientation).
¾ The optimal size for critical mass and operational efficiency of the grocery is estimated at
10,000 to 15,000 SF.
¾ Notwithstanding the current zoning requirements, the market will require parking at a
minimum ratio of 1 to 1.5 spaces per 1,000 SF. These spaces can be accommodated in a
variety of ways without impacting marketability – on site or in a common garage
provided that they are visible and accessible and can be part of a shared pool.
¾ The value of the existing building and the costs of new construction create inertia and
promote a status quo use that will require incentives to overcome – prospects for higher
and better use, more profitability, a better parking arrangement, some form of early
operating subsidy, etc. will be necessary to prompt redevelopment.
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¾ The rental economics for new store development are thin – but redevelopment of the
existing grocery has the potential to leverage/add value for other uses – on and offsite –
especially if it succeeds in creating more parking and a better anchor for year-round
activity in the downtown.
¾ This use cannot support the cost of structured parking or other cost premiums.
A Cozy Neighborhood of Waterfront Cottages
¾ Market analysis suggests a program of up to 50 units would be viable from a demand and
absorption perspective.
¾ The supportable unit profile is small to mid-sized (<2,000SF/unit average) – not
McMansions on the Harbor.
¾ The greatest market response will be produced by an organic/Nantucket cottage-style mix
oriented to attached-townhouse and duplex units with the potential for marketable flats
above waterfront and street facing ground floors.
¾ The pricing is likely to fall in the mid to upscale tier (above $750K) and can be expected
to draw both seasonal and year-round users – with an emphasis on the former.
¾ Water views will carry a substantial premium as will direct water frontage.
¾ There is some potential for mixed live/work spaces especially where ground floors meet
the commercial streets and water-edge – but true “artist” live-work units would likely
require a long term subsidy.
¾ Environmental conditions (both known and unknown) pose the most significant
impediment to residential development feasibility at the site as existing restrictions limit
residential uses on the ground floors.
¾ Residential development plans for some portions of the site will need to consider
elevating living spaces above parking spaces or additional remediation.
¾ If the environmental issues can be managed, this use has the most immediate
development potential given the relative scarcity of waterfront residential opportunities
and its ability to carry the costs of new construction.
¾ Notwithstanding the current zoning requirements, the market will require parking at a
minimum ratio of 1 space per unit. These spaces can be accommodated in a variety of
ways without impacting marketability – on site or in a common garage – but must have
guaranteed availability.
¾ This use cannot support the cost of structured parking or other cost premiums.
A Small Nantucket Inn
¾ Hotel markets have sustained a serious blow in the current recession and are expected to
take several years to stabilize. Our analysis assumes a development opportunity well in
the future - 2016 or later.
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¾ Market analysis suggests that the supportable future hotel program would contain no
more than 50 rooms.
¾ The feasibility analyses point to a seasonal (closed during the winter and early spring
months), independent operation (probably not flagged).
¾ Labor and operational issues for a seasonal operation add complexity and cost that argues
for a limited service (no hotel run food and beverage) facility.
¾ Publically accessible meeting, banquet, or a wedding venue on the water could be
provided through shared space at the Marketplace or elsewhere on site (programmed into
the garage or the transportation center).
¾ Likewise, any food and/or beverage service is assumed to be delivered through an
affiliation with an existing, local restaurateur – not hotel operated.
¾ Notwithstanding the current zoning, onsite parking would be required at .25 to .5 spaces
per key. These spaces can be accommodated in a variety of ways without impacting
marketability – on site or in a common garage and can be part of a shared pool.
¾ This use cannot support the cost of structured parking or other cost premiums.
An Active and Accessible Water’s Edge
¾ Within the spirit and intent of Chapter 91 an eclectic mix of small shops and marine-
related activities landside would invite public access to the water-edge and provide key
services to the boat basin and other users of the harbor.
¾ The commercial markets will not support very much additional retail, so any retail
programming is expected to be modest (the maximum amount is estimated at no more
than 5,000 to 15,000 SF) – and is likely to be mostly seasonal.
¾ These ground floor uses might also provide the base upon which to situate other above
grade waterfront uses including residential and hospitality functions.
¾ Watersheet activation concepts (oriented toward Petrol Landing) could include public
marina/boat club, boat rental operation, public boat launch
¾ These ground floor uses are viewed as ancillary to other primary uses of the site.
¾ This use cannot support the cost of structured parking or other cost premiums.
A Civic Presence on the Harbor
¾ Several of the alternative program options examined by this study include a Town-office
annex conveniently located for residents and Town employees with parking to serve both.
¾ The feasibility of this use is directly tied to the needs of the Town and the extent to which
the creation of an annex facility enables a more efficient operation or frees up space that
might be better deployed to other more economic purposes.
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¾ Such a facility might also allow for swing space to accommodate both public and non-
profit educational/cultural users, however, public supports or subsidies are likely to be
required.
¾ All of the concepts examined include space for development of an Intermodal
Transportation Center with off-street bus berths, comfortable passenger waiting areas,
visitor services and information, central ticketing center for water and landside activities,
lockers, showers and heads for day visitors and boaters) - for all of the seasons. Such a
facility is assumed to be publically funded primarily through State and Federal Sources.
¾ Ground transportation queuing and parking areas, with flexible spaces that can be
redeployed for other uses in the off-peak months would be a part of the site programming
as would public open space.
¾ A detailed land control strategy and financing plan will need to be crafted to support
public transportation elements of the program.
With Parking For All
¾ The programs studied by this planning exercise assume that parking would be provided to
serve all onsite redevelopment demand.
¾ All of the options tested but one (Scenario 2) assume that parking would be
accommodated in surface lots or on new streets created within the site.
¾ Scenario 2 assumes that a 230 space, above grade parking garage would be constructed –
a size sufficient to serve all but the residential uses (which would have their own
dedicated spaces on surface), producing an excess to serve the downtown market on the
order of 120 spaces.
¾ Our analysis demonstrates that none of the onsite development uses examined by this
study are capable of shouldering the extra cost of structured parking construction for their
own use or others. The costs have been estimated on a preliminary basis at between
$7.5M to $10.0M or up $40,000 per space.
¾ The ownership and financing of such an undertaking could take many forms - public or
private, taxable or tax-exempt, but we believe that a public sector financing supported by
investment from the State and Federal governments – tied to development of an
Intermodal Transportation Center - is the most likely approach to securing a garage
funding commitment at the site. Detailed study of a potential garage financing remains to
be accomplished as part of the outstanding due diligence effort.
Illustrative Redevelopment Alternatives
The land use building blocks can be assembled on the site in a variety of configurations and
development densities. The discussion that follows summarizes our assessment of the
redevelopment alternatives offered by CBT’s illustrative plans.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 51
Status Quo By-Right Zoning Option
¾ National Grid site and the tank farm site
are redeveloped for housing and ground
floor uses to meet Chapter 91
¾ Grand Union and parking lot remain “as
is”
¾ Greenhound site remains as the
Transportation Center
¾ Total GSF: 73,000
Program As of Right I
Residential/Hospitality 41,200
FPA Uses 14,933
Transportation 2,000
Grocery Store 15,000
Town Annex and Education 0
Total 73,133
National Grid 41,600
Winthrop/NIR 29,533
Greenhound LLC 2,000
¾ Reflects the likely condition unless
zoning changes and incentives are
provided to allow/support more robust
alternatives
¾ Least risk option for ownership re:
permitting, market and financial
exposure
¾ Lowest value option for existing owners
– produces the lowest development
density of the alternatives explored
¾ Produces risk of privatization of the
waterfront - access secured by Chapter
91 FPA requirements only
¾ Economic benefits are mostly for the on-
site users – no leverage – no synergy
¾ Fiscal impacts are positive though
constrained into the future
¾ Option does little to support the
performance of the downtown –
limited relief for downtown parking
shortfall
¾ Makes little contribution to island
life year-round – save for the
preservation of the existing grocery
¾ Least intervention – least investment
by public sector
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 52
Maximum By-Right Zoning Option
¾ National Grid and Winthrop/NIR sites
developed with full envelope theoretically
possible under zoning
¾ Greenhound site remains as the
transportation center
¾ Total GSF: 140,000
Program As of Right II
Residential/Hospitality 122,349
FPA Uses 15,598
Transportation 2,000
Grocery Store 0
Town Annex and Education 0
Total 139,946
National Grid 70,189
Winthrop/NIR 67,758
Greenhound LLC 2,000
¾ Redevelopment potentials difficult to
access – highly unlikely that the
theoretical maximum would be achieved
¾ Highest risk option overall - with
exposure to significant permitting risk
and market risk
¾ High value potential of maximum
density is illusory as it’s unlikely to be
achieved
¾ Produces risk of privatization of the
waterfront - access secured by Chapter
91 FPA requirements only
¾ Economic benefits are mostly for the on-
site users – no leverage – no synergy
¾ Fiscal impacts are positive though
illusory
¾ Increases density in the downtown
without ensuring public benefits in
exchange
¾ Does little to support the performance of
the downtown – limited relief for
downtown parking shortfall
¾ Makes little contribution to island life
year-round – save for the preservation of
the existing grocery
¾ Least intervention – least investment by
public sector
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 53
Rezoning Scenario 1 – No Garage
¾ Full site redevelopment undertaken with
cross-boundary ownership cooperation
¾ Plan designed to deliver on urban design
and economic development objectives
¾ No structured parking garage assumed
¾ Total GSF: 161,000
Program Scenario I
Residential/Hospitality 76,566
FPA Uses 43,253
Transportation 5,200
Grocery Store 16,568
Town Annex and Education 18,956
Total 160,543
National Grid 80,150
Winthrop/NIR 61,549
Greenhound LLC 18,956
¾ Substantial development capacity
created even with modest public parking
program
¾ Potential for expedited permitting under
Chapter 43D and for subsidization of the
cost of a scaled down Intermodal Center
¾ Lower permitting and financing risk
with potential for Transportation Center
funding
¾ High value potential with allowable
density more than double the status quo
option
¾ Improved public access to and civic
spaces on the waterfront
¾ Makes a positive contribution to
downtown Nantucket and the waterfront
- beyond the borders of the site –
produces leverage and synergy
¾ Makes a positive contribution to island
life year-round with a balanced mix
serving residents and visitors
¾ Onsite parking needs can be
accommodated but with limited parking
capacity created for downtown
¾ Chapter 91 access secured through
Municipal Harbor Plan process
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, Massachusetts
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 54
Rezoning Scenario 2 – With Garage
¾ Full site redevelopment undertaken with
cross-boundary ownership cooperation
¾ Plan designed to deliver on urban design
and economic development objectives
¾ 230 car structured parking garage assumed
¾ Total GSF: 175,000
Program Scenario II
Residential/Hospitality 84,996
FPA Uses 48,873
Transportation 5,200
Grocery Store 16,680
Town Annex and Education 18,956
Total 174,705
National Grid 80,150
Winthrop/NIR 75,599
Greenhound LLC 18,956
¾ Substantial development capacity
created while delivering over 120 excess
public parking spaces or the downtown
¾ Potential for expedited permitting under
Chapter 43D and for subsidization of a
full Intermodal Center
¾ Lower permitting, market and financing
risk with potential for Transportation
Center funding and a long term parking
solution
¾ High value potential with allowable
density at more than double the status
quo option
¾ Improved public access to and civic
spaces on the waterfront
¾ Makes a positive contribution to
downtown Nantucket and the waterfront
- beyond the borders of the site –
produces leverage and synergy
¾ Makes a positive contribution to island
life year-round with a balanced mix
serving residents and visitors
¾ Onsite parking needs can be
accommodated but significant parking
capacity created for downtown
¾ Chapter 91 access secured through
Municipal Harbor Plan process
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 55
Program Comparisons and Observations
The initial two options assume no change to the underlying by-right zoning – the first examines
potentials in a status quo alternative, assuming redevelopment of vacant and tank farm land only,
the second explores the theoretical development maximum allowed under the current zoning.
The final two scenarios illustrate two potential programming approaches to the site assuming a
site rezoning – one explores the site potentials without structured parking, one assumes the
construction of a 230 space above grade garage that can serve the onsite demand and the
downtown. The program details for each illustration are summarized for comparison purposes in
the table below.
Neither of the by-right zoning options, in our view, delivers on the economic or urban design
promise of the site – these reflect the fall back position – in the event that a more coordinated
and proactive approach fails to materialize for market, funding, political or other reasons. While
the density described by Option 2 is comparatively high, it reflects a theoretical maximum only
and is unlikely to be achievable at this level. Nonetheless it sets a useful benchmark against
which to evaluate the potential rezoning scenarios.
Both of the Rezoning Scenarios offer the potential for density and productive use of the site –
and value creation - at double the levels possible under the current zoning even when public/non-
profit uses are excluded. This additional capacity translates directly into an opportunity for
increased tax revenues, employment, sales, etc. Both of these alternatives meet the defined
economic objectives of a successful plan, however, of the two, Scenario 2 presents the greatest
potential to produce significant economic development benefits beyond the boundaries of the
site.
ILLUSTRATIVE PROGRAM SUMMARY
Illustrative As of Right As of Right Rezoning Rezoning
Programs Option 1 Option 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Residential 41,000 87,000 42,000 48,000
Commercial/Work 0016,000 20,000
Grocery 15,000 0 17,000 17,000
Hotel 0 35,000 36,000 36,000
Ch. 91/FPA Retail 6,500 6,500 5,000 5,000
Ch.91/FPA Marine 8,500 9,000 5,000 5000
Affordable Service Oriented Retail 0 0 0 6,000
Transportation 2,000 2,000 5,000 5,000
Town Annex & Education 0 0 19,000 19,000
Cultural/Entertainment 0 0 17,000 17,000
Total: 73,000 139,000 162,000 178,000
Total On Site Parking 187 179 194 288
Total Spaces for On-site Development 142 152 157 168
Surplus Available for Other Downtown Users 45 27 37 120
Shared Parking Supply 152 118 139 233
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 56
This is the only alternative which offers a credible response to the downtown parking shortage –
an issue which we have come to see as a mission critical aspect of a successful redevelopment at
the site. While the ability to secure funding for an ambitious parking and intermodal
transportation center is far from certain, the combination of land and water transportation
enhancements and a parking solution that could serve a dual benefit with respect to the
downtown makes for a compelling funding story - one which we believe strongly should be
pursued.
The figure below shows how the concepts illustrated in Rezoning Scenarios 1 and 2 may be
translated into a flexible framework for redevelopment at the site.
A Flexible Planning Framework
Block A: Town Annex/Education
Block B: Transportation Center Mixed Use
Block C: Parking Garage or Market/Entertainment
Block D: Market/Entertainment or Surface Parking
Block E: Mixed Use
Block F: Mixed Use
Block G: Civic Space
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 57
IMPLEMENTATION AND NEXT STEPS
Inertia is a powerful force – especially in a down market when the potentials for the future are
the hardest to see and impossible to forecast with much accuracy. That said, inaction is a self-
fulfilling prophesy and the surest way to ensure stagnation is sit on the sidelines hoping for better
times to deliver change. Communities that proactively work to create a development ready
environment are the most likely to benefit from and have some control over what the rising
economic tide brings in – those that don’t are most likely to miss the next opportunity when it
arrives and worse yet miss the chance to shape the future.
Guiding the redevelopment of the Wilkes Square property beyond the Status Quo Options will
require public leadership and investment. The site must be rezoned to provide incentives for
development in accordance with Nantucket’s vision. Chapter 91 relief must be sought. Greater
certainty and speed must be created in the local approval process. More must be done to
understand how a relocation of the tank farm can be implemented. Environmental costs and
risks must be identified and evaluated. A public financing plan, operating plan and a land
control strategy must be devised to create an intermodal transportation center (that may or may
not include a public garage) and to support the necessary infrastructure investments on and
offsite.
We note as well that the economics of development in Nantucket - even in good times – cannot
support the premium costs associated with extensive environmental remediation, structured
parking, or major new infrastructure investments. Public funding will be needed to support these
costs – in all likelihood with some participation and investment at the local level – at least in
advancing the next phase of future planning and due diligence. The most critical next steps
include developing:
An Approach to Entitlements that builds Constituent Support
¾ A flexible zoning framework and Masterplan with clearly articulated and predictable
parking and design standards that are supported by local constituent groups (guidelines
and trade-offs not prescriptions)
¾ A Municipal Harbor Plan that provides relief from the prescriptive requirements but not
the objectives of Chapter 91
¾ A Massachusetts Chapter 43D designation that provides expedited permitting for land
owners/developers that works within the guidelines of an approved Masterplan
A Public-Private Partnership to Drive Implementation
¾ Crafted Around Opportunities for:
• Intermodal transportation and smart growth
• Public parking and infrastructure improvements
• Public access to the waterfront
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 58
• Brownfields redevelopment
• Historic preservation
• Energy conservation and sustainable design
• Downtown revitalization
• Economic development and fiscal benefits
A Mixed Finance Plan that Leverages Constituent Funding Interests
¾ In:
• Intermodal Transportation
• Sustainable/Green Design
• Smart Growth
• Historic Preservation
• Continuing Education
• Brownfields Redevelopment
• Downtown Revitalization & Public Parking
• Public Access to the Waterfront & Watersheet
• Bicycle and Pedestrian Paths
• Beautification/Scenic Preservation/Urban Design
• Maritime History/Cultural Preservation
• Arts & Culture
¾ And includes pursuit of potential funding sources such as:
• Federal Transportation Administration
• National Endowment for the Arts
• US Department of the Interior
• National Endowment for the Humanities
• US Environmental Protection Agency
• Mass Executive Office of Finance and Administration
• Mass Development Finance Agency
• Mass Health & Education Finance Agency
• Mass Cultural Council
• Mass Exec. Office of Transportation
• Mass Department of Transportation
• Mass Dept of Environment Management
• Mass Dept of Conservation and Recreation
• Mass Technology Collaborative
• Mass Renewable Energy Trust
• Mass Office of Community Development
• Local DIF/TIF/BID
• Municipal Bonds
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 59
APPENDIX
Census Data 1990 and 2000
STDB Retail Goods and Services Definitions
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 60
Prepared by STDBonline
Nantucket County
Site Type: Geography
1990-2000
Number Percent Number Percent Annual Rate
Total Population 6,012 - 9,520 - 4.70%
Total Households 2,597 100.0% 3,699 100.0% 3.60%
Average Household Size 2.29 - 2.37 - 0.34%
Total Families 1,488 57.3% 2,106 56.9% 3.53%
Average Family Size 2.93 - 2.90 - -0.10%
Per Capita Income $20,591 - $31,314 - 4.28%
Total Housing Units 7,021 - 9,210 - 2.75%
Population by Sex
Male 3,003 50.0% 4,884 51.3% 4.98%
Female 3,009 50.0% 4,636 48.7% 4.42%
Population by Age
Total 6,012 100.0% 9,520 100.0% 4.70% Age 0 - 4 421 7.0% 525 5.5% 2.23%
Age 5 - 9 367 6.1% 511 5.4% 3.37%
Age 10 - 14 283 4.7% 513 5.4% 6.13%
Age 15 - 19 274 4.6% 418 4.4% 4.31%
Age 20 - 24 378 6.3% 563 5.9% 4.06%
Age 25 - 29 595 9.9% 849 8.9% 3.62%
Age 30 - 34 629 10.5% 1,013 10.6% 4.88%
Age 35 - 39 614 10.2% 1,061 11.1% 5.62%
Age 40 - 44 504 8.4% 927 9.7% 6.28%
Age 45 - 49 305 5.1% 733 7.7% 9.16% Age 50 - 54 278 4.6% 613 6.4% 8.23%
Age 55 - 59 253 4.2% 446 4.7% 5.83%
Age 60 - 64 292 4.9% 348 3.7% 1.77% Age 65 - 69 246 4.1% 275 2.9% 1.12%
Age 70 - 74 179 3.0% 268 2.8% 4.12%
Age 75 - 79 168 2.8% 207 2.2% 2.11%
Age 80 - 84 131 2.2% 137 1.4% 0.45%
Age 85+ 95 1.6% 113 1.2% 1.75%
Median Age 35.5 36.7 0.33%
Age 18+ 4,758 79.1% 7,692 80.8% 4.92%
Age 65+ 819 13.6% 1,000 10.5% 2.02%
Households by Household Income
Household Income Base 2,631 100.0% 3,701 100.0% 3.47%
< $15,000 482 18.3% 315 8.5% -4.16%
$15,000 - $24,999 260 9.9% 282 7.6% 0.82%
$25,000 - $34,999 366 13.9% 444 12.0% 1.95% $35,000 - $49,999 513 19.5% 617 16.7% 1.86% $50,000 - $74,999 628 23.9% 736 19.9% 1.60% $75,000 - $99,999 204 7.8% 470 12.7% 8.70%
$100,000 - $149,999 140 5.3% 440 11.9% 12.13% $150,000+38 1.4% 397 10.7% 26.44%
Median Household Income $40,331 $55,586 3.26%
Average Household Income $46,606 $76,214 5.04%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population and Housing. ESRI converted 1990 Census data into 2000
geography.
1990-2000 Comparison Profile
1990 Census 2000
Data Note: Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding. Census 2000 medians are computed from reported data distributions.
The "1990-2000 Annual Rate" is an annual compound rate.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 61
Prepared by STDBonline
Nantucket County
Site Type: Geography
1990-2000
Number Percent Number Percent Annual Rate
Families by Family Income
Family Income Base 1,453 100.0% 2,114 100.0% 3.82% < $15,000 1137.8% 823.9%-3.16%
$15,000 - $24,999 95 6.5% 89 4.2% -0.65%
$25,000 - $34,999 165 11.4% 230 10.9% 3.38%
$35,000 - $49,999 365 25.1% 307 14.5% -1.72%
$50,000 - $74,999 452 31.1% 485 22.9% 0.71%
$75,000 - $99,999 156 10.7% 389 18.4% 9.57%
$100,000 - $149,999 75 5.2% 321 15.2% 15.65% $150,000+32 2.2% 211 10.0% 20.76%
Median Family Income $49,315 $66,776 3.08%Average Family Income $55,110 $87,148 4.69%
Households by Poverty Status and Household Type
Total 2,631 100.0% 3,701 100.0% 3.47% Below Poverty Level 125 4.8% 195 5.3% 4.55%
Married-couple Family 80.3% 401.1%17.46%
Other Family - Male Householder, No Wife 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.00%
Other Family - Female Householder, No Husband 32 1.2% 23 0.6% -3.25%
Nonfamily Households 85 3.2% 132 3.6% 4.50%
At or Above Poverty Level 2,506 95.2% 3,506 94.7% 3.41% Married-couple Family 1,155 43.9% 1,705 46.1% 3.97% Other Family - Male Householder, No Wife 98 3.7% 107 2.9% 0.88%
Other Family - Female Householder, No Husband 160 6.1% 239 6.5% 4.09% Nonfamily Households 1,093 41.5% 1,455 39.3% 2.90%
Households by Type
Total 2,597 100.0% 3,699 100.0% 3.60%
Family Households 1,488 57.3% 2,106 56.9% 3.53%
Married-couple Families 1,225 47.2% 1,690 45.7% 3.27%
With Related Children 553 21.3% 776 21.0% 3.45%
Other Family (No Spouse Present)263 10.1% 416 11.2% 4.69%
With Related Children 154 5.9% 248 6.7% 4.88%
Nonfamily Households 1,109 42.7% 1,593 43.1% 3.69% Householder Living Alone 816 31.4% 1,104 29.8% 3.07%
Householder not Living Alone 293 11.3% 489 13.2% 5.26%
Households with Related Children 707 27.2% 1,024 27.7% 3.77%
Households by Vehicles Available
Total 2,597 100.0% 3,699 100.0% 3.60% None 166 6.4% 193 5.2% 1.52%
1 1,147 44.2% 1,311 35.4% 1.35% 2 941 36.2% 1,421 38.4% 4.21% 3 292 11.2% 571 15.4% 6.94% 4 29 1.1% 141 3.8% 17.13%
5+22 0.8% 62 1.7% 10.92%Average Number of Vehicles Available 1.6 1.8 1.18%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population and Housing. ESRI converted 1990 Census data into 2000
geography.
1990-2000 Comparison Profile
1990 Census 2000
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 62
Prepared by STDBonline
Nantucket County
Site Type: Geography
1990-2000
Number Percent Number Percent Annual Rate
Housing Units by Occupancy
Total 7,021 100.0% 9,210 100.0% 2.75%
Occupied Housing Units 2,597 37.0% 3,699 40.2% 3.60%
Owner Occupied Housing Units 1,628 23.2% 2,334 25.3% 3.67%
Renter Occupied Housing Units 969 13.8% 1,365 14.8% 3.49%
Vacant Housing Units 4,424 63.0% 5,511 59.8% 2.22%
For Rent 145 2.1% 56 0.6% -9.08%
For Sale Only 48 0.7% 57 0.6% 1.73% Rented or Sold, not Occupied 35 0.5% 67 0.7% 6.71%
For Seasonal/Recreational/Occasional Use 3,568 50.8% 5,170 56.1% 3.78%
For Migrant Workers 29 0.4% 10 0.1% -10.10%
Other Vacant 599 8.5% 151 1.6% -12.87%
Housing Units by Units in Structure
Total 7,021 100.0% 9,210 100.0% 2.75% 1, Detached 5,880 83.7% 7,964 86.5% 3.08%
1, Attached 184 2.6% 361 3.9% 6.97% 2 429 6.1% 551 6.0% 2.53%
3 or 4 149 2.1% 164 1.8% 0.96%
5 to 9 92 1.3% 84 0.9% -0.91%
10 to 19 28 0.4% 34 0.4% 1.96% 20+24 0.3% 35 0.4% 3.85%
Mobile Home 30.0% 170.2%18.94% Other 232 3.3% 0 0.0% -100.00%
Specified Owner Occupied Housing Units by Value
Total 1,355 100.0% 2,041 100.0% 4.18%
< $50,000 3 0.2% 0 0.0% -100.00%
$50,000 - $99,999 19 1.4% 10 0.5% -6.22% $100,000 - $149,999 56 4.1% 6 0.3% -20.02% $150,000 - $199,999 153 11.3% 6 0.3% -27.67%
$200,000 - $299,999 449 33.1% 224 11.0% -6.72% $300,000 - $499,999 433 32.0% 579 28.4% 2.95%
$500,000+242 17.9% 1,216 59.6% 17.52%
Median Home Value $299,437 $550,999 6.29%
Average Home Value $338,315 $641,906 6.61%
Specified Renter Occupied Housing Units by Rent
Total 944 100.0% 1,345 100.0% 3.60% With Cash Rent 837 88.7% 1,213 90.2% 3.78%
< $200 35 3.7% 22 1.6% -4.54% $200 - $499 173 18.3% 112 8.3% -4.25%
$500 - $749 305 32.3% 276 20.5% -0.99%
$750 - $999 187 19.8% 281 20.9% 4.16%
$1000+137 14.5% 522 38.8% 14.31% No Cash Rent 107 11.3% 132 9.8% 2.12%
Median Rent $670 $916 3.18%Average Rent $704 $939 2.92%
Data Note: Specified owner occupied Housing Units include only single family units on less than 10 acres, with no business or
medical office on site. Specified renter occupied Housing Units exclude single family units on 10+ acres. Average Rent excludes
units paying no cash rent. Rent, Home Value, and Units in Structure data are complete counts in 1990 and sample counts in 2000,
so changes in enumeration can affect comparability.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population and Housing. ESRI converted 1990 Census data into 2000
geography.
1990-2000 Comparison Profile
1990 Census 2000
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 63
Prepared by STDBonline
Nantucket County
Site Type: Geography
1990-2000
Number Percent Number Percent Annual Rate
Population 16+ by Employment Status
Total 4,807 100.0% 7,825 100.0% 4.99%
In Labor Force 3,668 76.3% 5,788 74.0% 4.67%
Civilian Employed 3,569 74.2% 5,451 69.7% 4.33%
Civilian Unemployed 75 1.6% 244 3.1% 12.52%
In Armed Forces 24 0.5% 93 1.2% 14.51%
Not in Labor Force 1,139 23.7% 2,037 26.0% 5.99%
Workers 16+ by Place of Work
Total 3,551 100.0% 5,346 100.0% 4.18%
Worked in State of Residence 3,543 99.8% 5,291 99.0% 4.09% Worked in County of Residence 3,469 97.7% 5,260 98.4% 4.25%
Worked outside County of Residence 74 2.1% 31 0.6% -8.33% Worked outside State of Residence 80.2% 551.0%21.26%
Workers 16+ by Transportation to Work
Total 3,551 100.0% 5,346 100.0% 4.18%
Drove Alone - Car, Truck, or Van 2,454 69.1% 3,488 65.2% 3.58%
Carpooled - Car, Truck, or Van 350 9.9% 834 15.6% 9.07%
Public Transportation 0 0.0% 10 0.2% 0.00%
Walked 371 10.4% 516 9.7% 3.35% Other Means 119 3.4% 153 2.9% 2.54%
Worked at Home 257 7.2% 345 6.5% 2.99%
Workers 16+ by Travel Time to Work
Total 3,551 100.0% 5,346 100.0% 4.18% Did not Work at Home 3,294 92.8% 5,001 93.5% 4.26% Less than 5 minutes 569 16.0% 823 15.4% 3.76%
5 to 9 minutes 1,188 33.5% 1,984 37.1% 5.26%
10 to 19 minutes 1,195 33.7% 1,891 35.4% 4.70%
20 to 24 minutes 133 3.7% 168 3.1% 2.36%
25 to 34 minutes 129 3.6% 65 1.2% -6.62% 35 to 44 minutes 23 0.6% 0 0.0% -100.00%
45 to 59 minutes 21 0.6% 7 0.1% -10.40%
60 to 89 minutes 36 1.0% 36 0.7% 0.00%
90 or more minutes 0 0.0% 27 0.5% 0.00% Worked at Home 257 7.2% 345 6.5% 2.99%
Average Travel Time to Work (in minutes)9.7 9.5 -0.21%
Population 15+ by Sex and Marital Status
Total 4,941 100.0% 7,948 100.0% 4.87%
Females 2,528 51.2% 3,900 49.1% 4.43% Never Married 622 12.6% 1,115 14.0% 6.01% Married, not Separated 1,266 25.6% 1,869 23.5% 3.97% Married, Separated 48 1.0% 78 1.0% 4.97%
Widowed 307 6.2% 323 4.1% 0.51%
Divorced 285 5.8% 515 6.5% 6.10%
Males 2,413 48.8% 4,048 50.9% 5.31%
Never Married 810 16.4% 1,577 19.8% 6.89% Married, not Separated 1,285 26.0% 1,935 24.3% 4.18%
Married, Separated 36 0.7% 42 0.5% 1.55%
Widowed 57 1.2% 49 0.6% -1.50%
Divorced 225 4.6% 445 5.6% 7.06%
Data Note: Marital status data are complete counts in 1990 and sample counts in Census 2000, so changes in enumeration can
affect comparability.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population and Housing. ESRI converted 1990 Census data into 2000
geography.
1990-2000 Comparison Profile
1990 Census 2000
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 64
Prepared by STDBonline
Nantucket County
Site Type: Geography
1990-2000
Number Percent Number Percent Annual Rate
Population by Race
Total 6,012 100.0% 9,520 100.0% 4.70%
White Alone 5,681 94.5% 8,363 87.8% 3.94%
Black or African American Alone 151 2.5% 789 8.3% 17.98%
American Indian or Alaska Native Alone 5 0.1% 1 0.0% -14.87%
Asian Alone 18 0.3% 61 0.6% 12.98%
Pacific Islander Alone 0 0.0% 4 0.0% 0.00%
Some Other Race Alone 51 0.8% 152 1.6% 11.54%
Two or More Races 106 1.8% 150 1.6% 3.53%
Diversity Index 12.1 25.5 7.74%
Hispanic Population by Race
Total 50 100.0% 212 100.0% 15.54%
White Alone 28 56.0% 88 41.5% 12.13%
Black or African American Alone 10 20.0% 6 2.8% -4.98%
American Indian or Alaska Native Alone 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.00%
Asian or Pacific Islander Alone 0 0.0% 1 0.5% 0.00%
Some Other Race Alone 11 22.0% 98 46.2% 24.45%
Two or More Races 1 2.0% 19 9.0% 34.24%
Population 3+ by School Enrollment
Total 5,767 100.0% 9,175 100.0% 4.75%
Enrolled in Public Preschool/Kindergarten 158 2.7% 125 1.4% -2.32%
Enrolled in Private Preschool/Kindergarten 54 0.9% 144 1.6% 10.31%
Enrolled in Public Elementary/High School 606 10.5% 1,138 12.4% 6.50%
Enrolled in Private Elementary/High School 64 1.1% 143 1.6% 8.37%
Enrolled in Public College 115 2.0% 110 1.2% -0.44%
Enrolled in Private College 97 1.7% 140 1.5% 3.74%
Not Enrolled in School 4,673 81.0% 7,375 80.4% 4.67%
Population 25+ by Educational Attainment
Total 4,316 100.0% 6,976 100.0% 4.92%
Less than 9th Grade 95 2.2% 123 1.8% 2.62%
9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma 364 8.4% 460 6.6% 2.37%
High School Graduate 1,164 27.0% 1,937 27.8% 5.22%
Some College, No Degree 928 21.5% 1,203 17.2% 2.63%
Associate Degree 343 7.9% 572 8.2% 5.25%
Bachelor's Degree 1,032 23.9% 1,888 27.1% 6.23%
Master's/Professional/Doctorate Degree 390 9.0% 793 11.4% 7.35%
1990-2000 Comparison Profile
1990 Census 2000
Data Note: The 1990 Census reported population by single races only. ESRI estimates the multiracial population from 1990 Census
data for the total population. In the 1990 Census, "Asian" and "Pacific Islander" were not reported separately for the Hispanic Origin
population. To compare the data, "Asian" and "Pacific Islander" are combined in 2000. The Diversity Index summarizes racial and
ethnic diversity. The index shows the likelihood that two persons, chosen at random from the same area, belong to different race or
ethnic groups.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population and Housing. ESRI converted 1990 Census data into 2000
geography.
Wilkes Square Economic Study Nantucket, MA
Byrne McKinney & Associates, Inc. Page 65
Retail Goods and Services Expenditures
Prepared by STDBonline
Site Type: Geography
Nantucket County
(5) Recreational Vehicles & Fees includes docking and landing fees for boats and planes, purchase
and rental of RVs or boats, and camp fees.
(6) Sports/Recreation/Exercise Equipment includes exercise equipment and gear, game tables,
bicycles, camping equipment, hunting and fishing equipment, winter sports equipment, water sports
equipment, other sports equipment, and rental/repair of sports/recreation/exercise equipment.
(7) Photo Equipment and Supplies includes film, film processing, photographic equipment, rental and
repair of photo equipment, and photographer fees.
(10) Mortgage Payment and Basics includes mortgage interest, mortgage principal, property taxes,
homeowners insurance, and ground rent.
(8) Reading includes magazine and newspaper subscriptions, single copies of magazines and
newspapers, and books.
(9) Snacks and Other Food at Home includes candy, chewing gum, sugar, artificial sweeteners, jam,
jelly, preserves, margarine, fat, oil, salad dressing, nondairy cream and milk, peanut butter, frozen
prepared food, potato chips, nuts, salt, spices, seasonings, olives, pickles, relishes, sauces, gravy,
other condiments, soup, prepared salad, prepared dessert, baby food, miscellaneous prepared food,
and nonalcoholic beverages.
(11) Maintenance and Remodeling Materials includes supplies/tools/equipment for painting and
wallpapering, plumbing supplies and equipment, electrical/heating/AC supplies, materials for hard
surface flooring, materials for roofing/gutters, materials for plaster/panel/siding, materials for
patio/fence/brick work, landscaping materials, and insulation materials for owned homes.
(12) Household Textiles includes bathroom linens, bedroom linens, kitchen linens, dining room linens,
other linens, curtains, draperies, slipcovers, decorative pillows, and materials for slipcovers and
curtains.
(13) Major Appliances includes dishwashers, disposals, refrigerators, freezers, washers, dryers,
stoves, ovens, microwaves, window air conditioners, electric floor cleaning equipment, sewing
machines, and miscellaneous appliances.
(14) Housewares includes plastic dinnerware, china, flatware, glassware, serving pieces, nonelectric
cookware and tableware
(15) Lawn and Garden includes lawn and garden supplies, equipment and care service, indoor plants,
fresh flowers, and repair/rental of lawn and garden equipment.
(16) Housekeeping Supplies includes soaps and laundry detergents, cleaning products, toilet tissue,
paper towels, napkins, paper/plastic/foil products, stationery, giftwrap supplies, postage, and delivery
services.
(17) Personal Care Products includes hair care products, nonelectric articles for hair, wigs, hairpieces,
oral hygiene products, shaving needs, perfume, cosmetics, skincare, bath products, nail products,
deodorant, feminine hygiene products, and personal care appliances.
(18) School Books and Supplies includes school books and supplies for college, elementary school,
high school, and preschool.
(19) Vehicle Purchases (Net Outlay)includes net outlay for new and used cars, trucks, vans,
motorcycles, and motor scooters.
(1) Apparel Products and Services includes material for making clothes, sewing patterns and notions,
shoe repair and other shoe services, apparel laundry and dry cleaning, alteration, repair and tailoring of
apparel, clothing rental and storage, and watch and jewelry repair.
(2) Membership Fees for Clubs includes membership fees for social, recreational, and civic clubs.
(3) Sound Equipment includes sound components and systems, Digital Audio Players, records, CDs,
audio tapes, streaming/downloaded audio, tape recorders, radios, musical instruments and
accessories, and rental and repair of musical instruments.
(4) Toys and Games includes toys, games, arts and crafts, tricycles, playground equipment, arcade
games, and online entertainment and games.